Who will win the presidential election? What the Harris Polls Say to Trump

The countdown to Election Day has been going on for just over a month as the race heats up and the polls show it.

Tuesday's vice presidential debate between Republican Sen. JD Vance of Ohio and Democratic Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota will open the month ahead of surprises in October.

This is likely to be the final debate after former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris met for a debate earlier this month and failed to agree to a second face-off.

The political climate of the last few months has made history and headlines leading up to this race:

Recently, there have been bubbling issues that point to chaos in the run-up to the election, such as the port strike in the ports on the East and Gulf Coasts and the simmering conflicts in the Middle East.

So the big questions arise: “Who will be the 47th President of the United States?” “Will former President Donald Trump return to the White House with JD Vance at his side, or will Vice President Kamala Harris become the first female president with the progressive Partner Tim Walz at your side?”

The answer to these questions depends on who you ask and what surveys you read.

Here's what the polls, odds and a historian have said in the last five weeks leading up to Election Day on Tuesday, November 5th.

Who is ahead in the polls and is favored by the odds?

ABC News Project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls at 48.5% to Trump's 45.8% compared to Harris' 48.3% to Trump's 45.6% last week compared to Harris' 48 .3% versus Trump 45.3% two weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% versus Trump 44.4% three weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% versus Trump 43.9% four weeks ago, or compared with Harris at 47.0% versus Trump at 43.7% five weeks ago.
270towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 3.7% ahead of Trump, compared to Harris 3% ahead of Trump last week, compared to Harris 2.5% ahead of Trump two weeks ago, compared to Harris 0.9 % ahead of Trump three weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.7% over Trump compared to four weeks ago, or compared to Harris 1.9% over Trump five weeks ago.
realclearpolling shows the odds are in Harris' favor, with a spread of +1.8 over Trump compared to Harris' +2.3 favor over Trump last week, compared to Harris' +2.0 over Trump two weeks ago , compared to Harris +1.1 over Trump three weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.8 over Trump four weeks ago and compared to Harris +1.7 over Trump five weeks ago.
Polymarket, a crypto trading platform, expresses betting audience odds in favor of Harris over Trump by 2%, compared to Harris over Trump by 3% last week, compared to Harris over Trump by 2% two weeks ago, compared to Harris three ago Weeks 1% above Trump, or compared to Trump four weeks ago, 4% above Harris, or compared to Harris, who was 1% ahead of Trump five weeks ago.

Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers apply as of Tuesday, October 1, 2024, 10:45 a.m

What did Allan Lichtman predict for the 2024 presidential election?

Presidential historian Allan Lichtman, 77, is a distinguished history professor at American University and lives in Bethesda, Maryland.

The presidential historian has predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election against former President Donald Trump. He says he uses 13 “keys” to make his selection, ranging from economic indicators to candidates’ charisma.

Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election in the last half century, except for the 2000 election, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.

How accurate were the voting rates or polls in past presidential elections?

According to Conversation, a nonprofit news organization, the betting favorite has lost just twice since 1866.

Polling track records are more challenging because different pollsters surveying different populations can often draw higher margins of error.

According to Pew Research, the public's trust in opinion polls has suffered due to errors in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

In these two general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of the Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.

Who is ahead in the polls and is favored by the odds?

What did Allan Lichtman predict for the 2024 presidential election?

How accurate were the voting rates or polls in past presidential elections?

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