Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Republican businessman Eric Hovde are in a tight race to win the Wisconsin Senate.

Senator Tammy Baldwin in the battleground state of Wisconsin.

Wisconsin was expected to be one of the closest battlegrounds in both the presidential and Senate races. Months of polls showed Baldwin, first elected in 2012, with a modest lead over Hovde, but competition intensified in the final weeks of the race.

With 85 percent of the votes counted, Hovde was ahead of Baldwin with 50.1 percent, according to NBC News forecasts.

In the presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are also engaged in a tight race that had not yet been decided as of midnight Wednesday.

Which presidential candidate did Wisconsin voters choose in 2016 and 2020?

Wisconsin proved to be a heavily divided state in recent elections, with the two major parties switching back and forth. Democrats hold large majorities in Milwaukee and Madison, but Republicans have gained ground among rural voters across the state.

In 2016, the state voted for Trump by 0.7 points; It was the first time since 1984 that Wisconsin voted Republican. Four years later, President Joe Biden turned the election back and carried the state by 0.63 points.

Baldwin last ran for election in 2018, when she defeated a challenger from Republican Leah Vukmir by about 11 points.

Republican Ron Johnson currently holds Wisconsin's other Senate seat, most recently winning re-election in 2022 when he defeated a challenger to former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes by a single percentage point. That same year, Democratic Gov. Tony Evers won re-election by 3.4 points.

What were the polling averages in Wisconsin?

Polls long showed Baldwin holding a slight lead over Hovde, although her lead had narrowed as election day approached. On Tuesday, aggregator FiveThirtyEight showed Baldwin with a 2.2 percent lead in the average of recent polls. A month earlier, on Oct. 5, Baldwin had an average lead of 5 percentage points, according to the aggregate.

RealClearPolitics showed Baldwin had a similar lead of 1.8 points in polling averages on Election Day.

Prognosticators believed both candidates had roughly equal chances of winning. The Cook Political Report classified Wisconsin's Senate race as a toss-up, a decision made in the weeks leading up to Election Day, with Baldwin considered the slight favorite until mid-October.

Abortion and the economy are among the biggest problems in Wisconsin

After the U.S. Supreme Court was overturned, reproductive rights became a key issue for voters in Wisconsin and other battlegrounds Roe v. Wade in 2022.

Baldwin reiterated her support for abortion during the campaign and supported legislation that would protect reproductive rights nationwide. Hovde, meanwhile, said Wisconsin voters should have the opportunity to decide on abortion law through a referendum. Hovde described himself as “100 percent pro-life” back in 2012, the reported Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

The economy and inflation have also been key issues for voters, as the last four years have seen high interest rates due to the COVID-19 pandemic but have now cooled, leading to rate cuts in recent months.

Social security was of particular interest. Baldwin described herself on Sunday as the only candidate who would not cancel the program, while Hovde accused her of misrepresenting his position on the matter. He denied that he wanted to make big cuts and said he wanted to raise the retirement age only for younger Americans and not for those already close to it.