Who is currently winning the presidential election? What polls predict

With just five days until the election, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris continue to wage a tough battle in Arizona, a swing state for the presidential election where a narrow margin could decide the outcome.

Both candidates and their vice presidential running mate ran a combative campaign in the weeks leading up to the Arizona election. They gathered, visited border towns and targeted different populations.

Trump and Harris both visited the Phoenix metropolitan area on Thursday, showing how important the Grand Canyon State is in this election. The vice president's visit took place as part of a campaign rally with the musical group Los Tigres del Norte, while the former president was in town to take part in a live show with Tucker Carlson.

Polls and ratings have shown that the dynamics have changed and how close the presidential race has become in recent months. But who is more likely to win the battle in Arizona and across the country, and could the ground game help tip the balance?

This is what polls, ratings and historians say about Election Day on Tuesday, November 5th.

Who is ahead in the polls in the USA?

Polls and odds are constantly changing, but here is where each candidate stood as of 7:30 a.m. on November 1, 2024:

ABC News Project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls at 48%, ahead of Trump at 46.8%. In the past, Harris has led Trump by as much as four percent, but recent polls show them much closer.
270towin shows Harris leading Trump by 1.2% in the national polls.
Realclearpolling shows that the betting odds are in favor of Trump by a margin of +0.3.

Who is leading the polls in Arizona?

Trump has had a growing lead over Harris in most polls in Arizona in recent weeks, but polls show the race in the battleground state is still incredibly close.

Here's where each candidate stood as of 7:30 a.m. on November 1, 2024:

ABC News Project 538 shows Trump leading Harris by 2.3% in polls in Arizona.
270towin shows Trump leading Harris by 1.8% in the Arizona polls.
Realclearpolling shows that the betting odds for the Arizona win are in favor of Trump by a margin of +2.3.

Historian who predicted 9 out of 10 elections comments

Allan Lichtman is a distinguished professor of history at the American University in Washington, DC. He earned a doctorate from Harvard specializing in modern American history and quantitative methods.

He has correctly predicted the outcome of nine of the last ten presidential elections, confirming his prediction of which candidate will retake the White House.

This year, he predicts Vice President Kamala Harris will win.

How accurate were the voting rates or polls in past presidential elections?

According to Conversation, a nonprofit news organization, the betting favorite has lost just twice since 1866.

Polling track record is more challenging because different pollsters surveying different populations can often find higher margins of error.

According to Pew Research, the public's trust in opinion polls has suffered due to errors in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

In these two general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of the Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.

Arizona Republic reporters Stephanie Murray and Zach Bradshaw and USA TODAY Network reporter Maria Francis contributed to this article.

Who is ahead in the polls in the USA?

Who is leading the polls in Arizona?

Historian who predicted 9 out of 10 elections comments

How accurate were the voting rates or polls in past presidential elections?

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