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What you need to know about Election Day 2024 exit polls


What you need to know about Election Day 2024 exit polls

Anyone who has watched Election Day coverage in the past or is looking forward to doing so in the hotly contested 2024 election has likely heard anchors or analysts refer to exit polls. But what are they and how do they work?

Exit polls are surveys conducted as voters leave their polling stations on Election Day. Reaching voters in this moment ensures that the people surveyed actually voted. Critical questions about who won and why will be answered based on the results of the exit poll. Election polls provide information about which issues were important in the election and how key demographic groups voted.

Watch ABC News on election night for complete coverage 2024 presidential election. Coverage begins Tuesday evening at 7 p.m. ET.

How are exit surveys conducted?

Interviewers stand outside polling stations in randomly selected precincts across the country and speak to voters as they leave at certain intervals, such as every fifth or ninth voter.

Voters who agree to participate complete a short, confidential questionnaire and place it in a ballot box.

The interviewers call the results three times a day. If a voter declines to participate, interviewers note that voter's gender and approximate age and race. This information is used to statistically adjust the exit poll to ensure that all voters are adequately represented in the final results.

What questions are asked in an exit survey?

The exit poll questionnaire asks who people voted for, their demographics, their opinions on the candidates, and their opinions on important issues. Here is an example of a previous exit poll question from 2022:

Do you believe that the state of the country's economy is as follows: 1. Excellent, 2. Good, 3. Not so good, 4. Poor

Are exit polls accurate?

Exit polls, like any other survey, are subject to sampling and non-sampling errors. Before news organizations report election poll results or make forecasts, they compare the results with pre-election polls and voting history in that district, and have the data carefully reviewed by statisticians and political experts.

After elections are completed, election results are weighted based on actual voting to make the data more accurate. Election polls can be used to predict the winners of races where the gap between candidates is large. However, most election forecasts are made based on actual voting data after polls close.

How do exit polls account for people who vote early or by mail?

In the 2020 presidential election, about 70 percent of voters voted by mail or early in person before Election Day. In 2024, this value is expected to be around 60 percent.

Exit polls miss those who vote before Election Day. However, it is important to include them in the data to obtain accurate information about all voters.

Election surveys include those who vote by mail or early in one of two ways. The first is to conduct multimodal surveys (e.g. by telephone, SMS and email) among those who voted by postal or early voting. Second, in states with a high proportion of early in-person voters, exit polls are conducted in the weeks leading up to Election Day, as those voters leave the polling places where they vote early. Data from the multi-mode polls and early voter exit polls are combined with the Election Day exit poll to provide a complete picture of all voters, regardless of when they voted.

When will the exit poll results be announced?

There is a strict embargo on all data from the first waves of poll results until 5:00 p.m. ET on Election Day. At approximately 5:45 p.m. ET, some initial demographic information about voters and their views on key election issues will be available on ABCNews.com. After polls close in a state, full election crosstabs (tables of data showing how different subgroups voted) are published on ABCNews.com.

ABC News will not announce a winner before the last scheduled poll deadline in each state. If a race is not forecast by poll close time, actual voting data will be included in the forecast and will occur as soon as the data warrants it. Information will be continually updated throughout the evening on ABCNews.com and across all ABC News programs.

Copyright © 2024 ABC News Internet Ventures.

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