The 2024 election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris appears closer than ever as the race enters its final week.

Pollsters and forecasters believe Trump has a slight advantage over the Democratic candidate, but it could still go either way.

Trump's national average numbers have improved slightly over Harris since last week, although most prominent aggregators still show the vice president ahead overall. The battle between Harris and Trump in the seven key swing states that could ultimately decide the election remains neck-and-neck, with the candidates either nearly tied or just ahead in various polls.

Newsweek emailed both campaign teams for comment.

Veteran pollster Nate Silver, who founded 538 and now uses a similar forecasting model for his Silver Bulletin blog, recently wrote in: The New York Times that calling the race a 50-50 draw was the “only responsible prediction.” Silver added that his “gut feeling” suggests Trump will win in the Electoral College vote.

“However, I don’t believe anyone’s gut feeling should be given any value, including mine,” Silver wrote. “Instead, you should come to terms with the fact that a 50:50 forecast actually means 50:50. You should remain open to the possibility that these predictions are wrong, and that could also be the case towards Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris.”

Harris' clearest path to victory in November would depend on winning the three battleground blue wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, barring any surprise results elsewhere. Trump's most efficient path to 270 Electoral College votes would be to win Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina.

National averages

According to 538, Harris has a national average lead of just over 1.4 points (48.1 percent to 46.6 percent) over Trump. This is a slight decrease from the 1.7 point lead she had on October 22, when there were two weeks left in the election.

The poll aggregator says Trump has a 54 percent chance of winning the race in November, but emphasizes that it remains essentially a toss-up.

“The closeness of the race bears repeating what has become something of a mantra here at 538 lately: A close race in the polls does not necessarily mean the outcome will be close,” wrote 538’s G. Elliott Morris. “ All seven swing states are still within normal polling error of arriving at the candidate who is currently 'losing' in each.”

Silver's model gives Harris a national average poll lead over Trump of 1.1 points (48.6 percent to 47.5 percent). Trump's numbers improved by 0.5 points compared to last week.

On October 26, RealClearPolitics reported that Trump had surpassed Harris in the national average for the first time since the vice president became the Democratic Party's nominee in 2024. Trump currently leads Harris by 0.5 points, 48.1 percent to Harris' 47.6 percent.

According to Decision Desk HQ/The Hill's, Harris leads Trump by 0.7 percent nationally (48.6 percent to 47.9 percent). This is less than the 1-point lead the vice president had last week.

Swing states

According to 538, Harris and Trump are essentially tied in four key battleground states. The pair is at 47.8 percent each in Wisconsin, while Trump has a slight lead in Pennsylvania (plus 0.3 points) and Nevada (0.2 points). Harris is ahead in Michigan (0.5 points).

Trump has larger leads in North Carolina (up 1.3 points), Georgia (1.6 points) and Arizona (1.9 points).

According to Silver Bulletin, Harris is ahead in the blue wall states of Michigan (0.5 points) and Wisconsin (0.4 points). Trump leads Harris in Pennsylvania (0.5 points), North Carolina (1.3 points), Georgia (1.4 points) and Arizona (2 points). The candidates are tied in Nevada at 47.9 percent.

RealClearPolitics shows Trump leading Harris in all seven swing states.

The former president leads in Arizona (plus 1.5 points), Georgia (2.3 points), Michigan (0.1 points), Nevada (0.7 points), North Carolina (0.8 points), Pennsylvania (0 .5 points) and Wisconsin (0.3 points).

Current survey

A TIPP tracking poll of 1,288 likely voters found Trump and Harris tied at 48 percent. The poll was conducted Oct. 25-27, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.

A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted Oct. 23-25 ​​showed Harris with a one-point lead over Trump nationally (50 percent to 49 percent). The poll of 2,161 registered voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

In an Emerson College poll of 1,000 likely voters, Trump and Harris also had 49 percent each. The national poll was conducted Oct. 23-24 and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points in both cases.