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What Brookings education researchers will see on Election Day


What Brookings education researchers will see on Election Day

As we near the end of another brutal campaign season, most Americans' attention remains focused on the U.S. presidential election. We at the Brown Center have watched with interest as education issues have found their way into the Harris-Trump race, from Kamala Harris choosing a former teacher as her candidate to Donald Trump continuing to talk about dismantling the U.S. Department of Education talked. But even as voters rank education among the most important issues in this presidential race, other issues — such as immigration, abortion and the economy — have garnered more media attention.

Of course, there is much more on Americans' ballots this November than just the names of the presidential candidates. We spoke with researchers at the Brown Center to get their insights and reactions to some of the most important education issues before voters.

Jon Valant

Voters approve private school vouchers

I will be monitoring several state ballot initiatives that impact private school choice programs. A recent wave of government programs that allow families, including wealthy families, to use public resources to finance private schooling has rightly garnered a lot of attention. Critics argue that these programs are hostile to public schools, violate norms of anti-discrimination and separation of church and state, have little empirical support, and exacerbate the opportunity gap.

In KentuckyVoters will decide on Amendment 2, which would add a clause to the state constitution allowing the Legislature to fund private schools. Only a simple majority is needed to pass the amendment, and if it does, the state could quickly roll out a large-scale voucher program, analysts say. In ColoradoVoters will vote 55% in favor of Amendment 80, which would enshrine a “constitutional right to school choice.” The wording of the amendment has caused conflict and confusion. (Utah voters were poised to vote on an amendment that also raised concerns about wording, but Utah's Third Circuit Court invalidated that ballot question, at least for now.) Meanwhile Nebraska, Voters decide with a simple majority eliminate Financing private school choice. Referendum 435 would repeal 2024 legislation that gave the state treasurer $10 million annually to administer a scholarship program.

Opponents of large-scale voucher programs will cheer a “no” vote in Kentucky and Colorado and a “repeal” vote in Nebraska. In the past, voters have not responded favorably to ballot initiatives that provide public funding for private schools. We will find out whether this also applies now that school vouchers are becoming more of a focus.

Katharine Meyer

A referendum on standardized assessments in education

On the ballot in Massachusetts is a measure on whether the state will continue to require students to pass 10th-grade Massachusetts Comprehensive Assessment System (MCAS) exams in English, math and science (as it has done since 2003). Most students pass the MCAS the first time; the majority of those who ultimately fail to pass or successfully appeal a failing MCAS grade. Only 1.8% of students in the class of 2019 were denied a high school diploma based on their MCAS test (and instead received a certificate of achievement). The test is highly correlated with longer-term outcomes, such as college attendance and graduation, although opponents of mandatory testing raise concerns that the tests do not fully capture students' abilities or are too stressful for students. Even within the same political party, politicians in Massachusetts have different views on the ballot measure.

I'm watching the Massachusetts decision because it feels like a watershed moment in the role of standardized testing in students' educational progress. Massachusetts is one of only eight states that require students to take and pass a high school subject exam to receive a diploma. This is a significant decline in the No Child Left Behind accountability era, when more than half of states required students to pass exams for graduation.

Post-pandemic, there have been different trends in standardized testing at other major education venues. For example, 16 states and the District of Columbia require grade retention for third graders who fail standardized exams, although the large number of students failing these exams has raised questions about the feasibility of implementing these grade retention policies. In the higher education sector, almost all universities dispensed with admissions tests during the pandemic. In recent years, some universities have reintroduced exam results, while others have made exam results permanent. Schools that take both approaches argue that their policies promote equal opportunity in admissions. The Massachusetts ballot initiative will provide useful information about whether the public is interested in moving away from standardized testing or continuing to use high-stakes testing for educational decisions.

Michael Hansen

National attention to teacher compensation has stalled

Increasing public sector teacher pay no longer appears to be an urgent policy priority at the federal level or in most states. I come to this conclusion because of the lack of debate on this issue this election season. The silence surprised me, given the public attention given to the issue since the pandemic and the accompanying concerns about burnout and teacher shortages. Finally, momentum around the $60,000 minimum proposed in the American Teacher Act only picked up in early 2023. However, this has not materialized in 2024: both major party presidential candidates have largely ignored the issue (after making a few token statements about teachers and their pay). For Harris, this lack of attention to teacher pay raises is a reversal from her 2020 presidential bid, in which her campaign promise to increase average teacher pay by 23% was a central part of her platform.

Only in a few states has teacher pay received much attention. Indiana gubernatorial candidate Jennifer McCormick (D), for example, previously served as state superintendent, and education is a key part of her platform, including a commitment to a minimum teacher salary of $60,000. In North Carolina, both candidates in the open race for governor, Josh Stein (D) and Mark Robinson (R), have advocated for further increases in teacher pay after the state passed a 3 percent raise earlier this summer. The issue also came up in the New Hampshire gubernatorial race.

The lack of interest in teacher salaries may indicate that recent legislative action at the state level has been enough to make progress on the issue and dampen overall demand for reform. Based on my tables, 15 states have enacted policies to increase teacher salaries either this year or last year – 11 of which were in the bottom half of the average teacher salary rankings, according to the National Education Association. And in 2018, several states experienced teacher strikes and subsequently took action for salary increases as part of the “RedForEd” movement – ​​again, many states were among the lowest wage states at the time.

Focusing compensation reform at the state level is, in my opinion, best because it allows state actors to simultaneously balance pay with other competing needs, such as school staffing levels, retirement, and benefits, and consider these in line with other needed teacher compensation reforms. I'm not suggesting that these teacher compensation measures in recent years have been enough to fully support the faltering teaching workforce; Looking at long-term trends, I suspect we still have a long way to go. However, the changes so far give cause for optimism, even if there is no debate in most races.

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