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Week 7 FCS Predictions: Idaho-Montana State, NAU-Montana, Nicholls-UIW + more


Week 7 FCS Predictions: Idaho-Montana State, NAU-Montana, Nicholls-UIW + more

Week 7 of the 2024 FCS season is a little less demanding with only two matchups between top 25 teams.

Let's predict some results.


Prediction recording:
2024 record: 37-15
2023 record: 96-42


Week 7 Top 5 Games

Instructions for the 7th week

No. 7 Idaho at No. 3 Montana State

Montana State boasts the best rushing attack in the FCS, led by future NFL prospects Marcus Wehr and Conner Moore. Julius Davis, MSU's best running back last year, hasn't played yet this fall. All-American center Justus Perkins also didn't make it. But Scottre Humphrey (668 yards, 8 TDs) and Adam Jones (418 yards, 4 TDs) did a good one-two punch. The Bobcats average 303.3 rushing yards per game, ranking second in the FCS behind Davidson's option attack.

Tommy Mellott makes good decisions, both with his arm (12 TDs, 0 INT) and his legs by not putting himself in harm's way. It will be interesting to see if this “business decision” mindset (which he and MSU need) continues in the heat of the moment in close games. Does MSU fall back in love with the QB run game when they need a big third-down conversion or a score in the red zone?

Idaho boasts one of the best defensive front seven in the FCS, led by LB Jaxton Eck (45 tackles), DE Keyshawn James-Newby (8 sacks) and DT Dallas Afalava (3.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks). The Vandals own the No. 8 rush defense and allow 93.3 YPG.

This is now Idaho's fifth straight FCS opponent after starting the season with back-to-back FBS games. The Vandals have key players out due to injury, while other key players are playing but dealing with injuries. Although MSU also battled some injuries, it was not tested against FCS competition and was able to spread out reps.

I think Idaho might be in for a buzz saw here. The injuries, the road fatigue, the shaky QB play, the Bobcat Stadium environment, the revenge factor for MSU and the fact that the Cats are just that good will be overwhelming.

Montana State gets a clear victory, winning by three points.

RELATED: What's at stake for MSU vs. Idaho?

Prediction: Montana State 35-17


No. 24 Northern Arizona at No. 14 Montana

A crucial game for both teams.

NAU wants to prove it's real after defeating then-No. 10 Sac State and lost to No. 10 Idaho by just one point despite losing starting quarterback Ty Pennington to an injury in the first half.

It may also be a turning point for Montana. Despite having an elite offense, the Grizzlies have allowed 35, 49 and 55 points in their last three games, which is a frightening number for this program. Last week was a 55-48 loss to unranked Weber State. At 4-2, another loss this week puts Montana's playoff hopes in doubt. A win gives the Griz a likely record of 7-2 heading into their final three games of the regular season.

Pennington's status is unknown as of this writing. He's listed on this week's depth chart, for what that's worth. Regardless, a motivated Montana defense with perhaps a simpler game plan appears to be taking a step in the right direction. They don't need to be as dominant as last year, just show signs of improvement as the offense is one of the best in the country.

In short, it's hard to imagine Montana losing at home in consecutive weeks.

Prediction: Montana 38-27


No. 2 North Dakota State in Southern Illinois

The health of the quarterbacks is a key storyline here.

SIU only has its QB on the third line. Starter DJ Williams is out with a hand injury. And last week, Hunter Simmons suffered a broken leg. True freshman Jake Curry will make his starting debut on Saturday.

For NDSU, Walter Payton Award frontrunner Cam Miller left the game last week and things didn't look good as he returned to the locker room with an ankle injury. But the x-ray was clean. It looks like he's going to try it this week. At least that's what he and head coach Tim Polasek say publicly. A sprained ankle could still linger, and does NDSU really want its franchise quarterback on the market at less than 100 percent when No. 1 seed SDSU comes up next week? Or are you falling into a trap game if you let Miller sit out of caution rather than necessity?

The Bison are currently thriving on all fronts, coming off two consecutive dominant victories against ranked opponents. And SIU is sliding the other way, bitten by so many injuries across the 2-deep. We'll see if the Salukis can put on a spirited performance in front of their homecoming crowd. But NDSU will be too much and pull away in the second half.

Prediction: NDSU 34-14


Nicholls ranked 15th in the UIW

Last year, Nicholls made a statement with its 45-32 win over UIW, a game it led 45-19 early in the fourth quarter. UIW couldn't stop the run and allowed 331 yards.

UIW appears to have improved against the run this year and will once again have to deal with Collin Guggenheim, who is up to 456 rushing yards and five touchdowns. The Cardinals are on a two-game winning streak after losing to No. 1 SDSU and a healthy SIU team. They dominated Northern Arizona (which has now aged well with NAU) and Prairie View A&M.

Nicholls is also on a two-game winning streak, defeating Mississippi Valley State and Southern by a combined score of 117-7. This came after an 0-3 start with two FBS losses and a loss to ranked Sac State.

If UIW wants to continue climbing the rankings, they need a win here. Zach Calzada and his top two targets, Jalen Walthall and Roy Alexander, made some explosive plays to pull off a nail-biting victory in the final minute.

RELATED: Resumes for the top 10 ranked FCS teams

Prediction: UIW 31-28


Princeton at No. 8 Mercer

A fun matchup between Ivy League and SoCon.

Princeton is currently 1-2, beating Howard and losing to Lehigh and Columbia.

Mercer is 5-0 with two wins over Chattanooga and Wofford. The Bears are elite defensively. They are the No. 1 rushing defense in the FCS, allowing an incredible 29.2 yards per game and 1.17 yards per attempt. Their 7.8 points allowed per game is No. 2, behind Butler's 6.0.

Veterans Isaac Dowling (28 tackles) and Ken Standley (24 tackles, 3.5 TFLs) lead the defense at linebacker, while LB Marques Thomas (24 tackles, 6 TFLs) has also played at a high level.

The offense was also solid, scoring 32.8 points per game. Mercer is too complete a team to drop this game.

Prediction: Mercer 28-10

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No. 23 Chattanooga at Furman

Chattanooga returned to the national radar after defeating ranked ETSU last week. After an 0-3 start, the Mocs are now 2-3 overall, although two losses came against FBS opponents and the third was a one-point loss to Mercer, now ranked in the top 10. Furman fell a bit behind after its quarterfinal run last year. The Paladins are 2-3, but they will be a tough opponent for any SoCon team in the competitive league. Chattanooga wins, but it will be a fight.

Prediction: Chattanooga 24-17


Tennessee Tech ranked #11 SEMO

Tennessee Tech is 2-3 overall, but it is 2-1 against FCS competition and 2-0 in the Big South-OVC standings, beating TN State and Gardner-Webb. However, SEMO will be too much. The Redhawks are 5-1 overall and have come close to winning the FBS. Senior QB Paxton DeLaurent is playing at an All-American level, throwing for 1,669 yards, 16 touchdowns and four interceptions. Dorian Anderson has already accumulated 572 receiving yards and six scores.

Prediction: SEMO 35-21


Stephen F. Austin at No. 22 Lamar

Lamar is 3-2 overall and 3-1 against FCS and is climbing the rankings after defeating then-No. 20 Weber State 17-16. But things haven't looked so good since then, beating Texas Southern 20-17 and losing to then-No. 7 Central Arkansas 34-14. TSU is currently 2-3 with just one D1 win. SFA has looked solid in recent weeks, improving to 3-2 with two dominant wins over Northern Colorado and Northwestern State. The two losses were competitive games at FBS North Texas and at McNeese, who is ranked this year. My surprise pick didn't score that many goals this year, but let's start with SFA beating ranked Lamar.

Prediction: SFA 28-24


Brown at No. 19 Rhode Island

Brown is off to a 2-1 start, defeating Georgetown and Harvard before losing to Bryant. Rhody is off to a strong start in terms of balance and is 4-1 and 4-0 overall against the FCS. Rhody is definitely a top-ranked team, but there's hope for its narrow wins – beating Holy Cross (2-4) by three points, Campbell (2-4) by 12, LIU (0-6) by seven and needed two overtime periods to beat Hampton (3-3) by two. Rhody is going for the win this week. This could be a playoff team this year, but there are currently no ranked teams on the schedule (although Delaware moving to the FBS will be a good test).

Since the CAA is such a big league, it can be a boon for the league. Imbalanced scheduling will result in multiple teams having playoff-worthy records. But it could also be a curse. How does the playoff committee view an 8-win CAA team that hasn't played a ranked opponent? It will be fascinating to see how the 12-game season unfolds in what could be a crowded bubble.

Prediction: Rhody 31-17


Youngstown State at No. 1 South Dakota State

Hobo Day and a week before heading to No. 2 NDSU? A trap game for the Jackrabbits? Maybe a fair idea in the preseason, but YSU was 2-4 this year. SDSU made a statement at UNI last week and was scheduled to compete again this weekend.

Prediction: SDSU 35-10

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