US election: How did the seven swing states vote in the past? | News about the 2024 US election

Vice President Kamala Harris and former US President Donald Trump are tied in polls as millions of Americans head to the polls on Tuesday.

Both campaigns focused on seven key swing states that will likely decide the ultimate winner: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Most US states lean strongly or at least very clearly towards Republicans or Democrats. Swing states – also called battleground states – are the outliers where support for both parties and their candidates is almost equal.

But the states that meet the criteria for being categorized as swing states have not always been theaters that have hosted close contests.

Here's a look at how these seven states have fared over the past few decades and in recent elections.

Arizona (11 electoral votes)

The southwestern state has long been a strong red state. Aside from Democrat Bill Clinton's victory in 1996, the state has consistently voted for Republican candidates since 1952, when it supported Dwight Eisenhower.

Until everything changed in 2020 and Biden won by 0.3 percentage points over Trump and Arizona became a state territory.

According to the polling platform FiveThirtyEight, Trump is ahead in the state by 2.1 percentage points before Election Day. But this margin – as with all swing states this time – is well within the margin of error for polls. The state has more Republican registered voters (34.7%) than Democrats (30.5%). Others are third-party voters.

Here's who Arizona voted for in the last six presidential elections:

2000: Republicans (51.0%)
2004: Republicans (54.9%)
2008: Republicans (53.6%)
2012: Republicans (53.7%)
2016: Republicans (48.7%)
2020: Democratic (49.4%)

Georgia (16 Electoral College votes)

This is another southern state that normally votes Republican but went blue in 2020. Since 1972, only two Democrats have won here: Jimmy Carter, a native of the state, won in 1976 and 1980, and Clinton won in his first election in 1992.

Trump won in 2016 by five percentage points over Hillary Clinton. But Biden flipped the state and narrowly won in 2020 – by 0.2 percentage points.

Democrats are counting on the state's black and immigrant population in Atlanta to help Harris win this time, while Republicans are hoping Georgia's majority rural and white population will bring her back into the ranks. At FiveThirtyEight, Trump has a lead of 0.8 percentage points.

Here's who Georgia voted for in the last six presidential elections:

2000: Republicans (54.7%)
2004: Republicans (58.0%)
2008: Republicans (52.2%)
2012: Republicans (53.3%)
2016: Republicans (50.8%)
2020: Democratic (49.3%)

North Carolina (16 Electoral College votes)

Like Arizona and Georgia, the southern state has typically voted red.

Since Lyndon Johnson in 1964, only two Democrats have won North Carolina: Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008.

Trump won the state in both 2016 (3.6 percent) and 2020 (1.3 percent).

According to FiveThirtyEight, he is once again in the lead, albeit by a tiny margin of 0.9 percentage points.

A Trump campaign official said in a call with reporters last week that it was the “only state that could bite you in the butt,” betraying the team's nervousness about the tight margins in the state. Trump has returned to North Carolina to campaign almost every day for the past week. Analysts say the surge in Republicans voting early gives the party some hope.

Here's who North Carolina voted for in the last six presidential elections:

2000: Republicans (56.0%)
2004: Republicans (56.0%)
2008:Democrat (49.7%)
2012: Republicans (50.4%)
2016: Republicans (49.8%)
2020: Republican (49.9%)

Nevada (6 Electoral College votes)

Nevada, a small state of 3 million people, enjoys a certain frontrunner status: except in 1976 and 2016, it has voted for the eventual winner.

In recent elections, the vote has been two-way, although Democrats have won consistently since 2008. The state has a growing immigrant population and a large number of third-party voters who could significantly influence the outcome.

In a column this week, Jon Ralston, editor of The Nevada Independent, predicted that Harris would come out on top: “There are a lot of bipartisans who are closet Democrats.” According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump was ahead of Harris by just 0.3 percentage points as of Tuesday morning .

Here's who Nevada voted for in the last six presidential elections:

2000: Republicans (49.5%)
2004: Republicans (50.5%)
2008: Democrat (55.2%)
2012: Democrat (52.4%)
2016: Democrat (47.9%)
2020: Democrat (50.1%)

Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes)

It is the biggest prize among swing states, offering the most Electoral College votes. And many analysts believe that whoever wins Pennsylvania will likely win the presidency – barring any other surprises.

Voters in the northeastern state had consistently voted for the Democratic Party candidate since Bill Clinton's victory in 1992 – until Trump and Hillary Clinton beat the odds in the state in 2016.

The state appears to be deadlocked at the moment – and both campaigns held their final rallies before the election in Pennsylvania. According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris had a lead of 0.2 percentage points on Election Day.

Here's who Pennsylvania voted for in the last six presidential elections:

2000: Democrat (50.6%)
2004: Democrat (50.9%)
2008:Democrat (54.5%)
2012: Democrat (52.0%)
2016: Republicans (48.2%)
2020: Democrat (50.0%)

Michigan (15 Electoral College votes)

George HW Bush was the last Republican to win the election in the Midwestern state until Trump dashed predictions of winning Michigan in 2016.

In 2020, Biden won the state back for Democrats, helped in part by the state's large Arab-American population – the largest in North America. But the community is now angry at Biden and Harris for their steadfast support of Israel's brutal war on Gaza and Lebanon, and many have threatened to vote for Green Party candidate Jill Stein or even Trump.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris is ahead by one percentage point.

Here's who Michigan voted for in the last six presidential elections:

2000: Democrat (51.3%)
2004: Democrat (51.2%)
2008:Democrat (57.4%)
2012: Democrat (54.2%)
2016: Republicans (47.5%)
2020: Democrat (50.6%)

Wisconsin (10 Electoral College votes)

Like Pennsylvania and Michigan, Wisconsin was a reliably Democratic state for several election cycles before Trump broke through that stronghold and won in 2016. Before Trump, the last Republican to win Wisconsin was Ronald Reagan in 1984.

Biden narrowly won the state back in 2020.