Unprecedented hurricane danger in Florida

The strengthening Hurricane Helene in the Gulf of Mexico is the latest tropical terror to hit Florida.

The expected Category 3 hurricane is approaching Florida's Big Bend and has already prompted three coastal counties – Franklin, Wakulla and Taylor – to order all residents to evacuate in the face of a forecast and “unsurvivable” 15-foot storm surge. Helene could also become Tallahassee's worst storm event in history if 100-mph winds hit “Tree City USA.”

Ryan Truchelut, founder of WeatherTiger and hurricane forester for the USA TODAY NETWORK-Florida, said Helene is an unprecedented storm.

“Helene is in no way inferior to any threat that Florida has faced in the last decade or even in the entire history of hurricanes.”

Here is the latest information from the direction of the storm.

Dr. Ryan Truchelut of the Tallahassee-based weather service WeatherTiger warned in his morning briefing that the noose was tightening around Florida's capital and its coastal neighbors.

The strengthening Tropical Storm Helene will avoid any landfall and shoot through the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf of Mexico, giving it a glide path for rapid intensification on its way to Florida as a Category 3 storm or even higher.

When the storm finally makes landfall between Apalachicola and Cedar Key, it could have more devastating consequences for many communities than Hurricane Michael.

“A life-threatening storm surge of over 10-15 feet in Apalachee Bay will inundate large portions of the Big Bend and low-lying coastal counties of the eastern Panhandle, where evacuations are mandated,” wrote Truchelut, who produces written and interactive video forecasts for the USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida. “This would be by far the worst storm surge in Apalachee Bay history, surpassing the storm surge from Michael and that of the much smaller Idalia in Apalachee Bay and the Nature Coast.”

He also noted that as Helene's track remains stable, “time is running out for the saving eastward shift that has kept the worst of Idalia and Debby in our southeast.”

“The difference between damaging and potentially catastrophic winds for your local impact is whether the core/eyewall of Helene passes over you, which in this case may be about 60 miles wide,” he wrote. “It's too early to know exactly who will get the core, but if so, expect destructive inland gusts of 80-100+ mph. For Tallahassee, that would cause damage greater than Hermine or Michael.”

He noted that today was the last day to complete your preparations.

“IF YOU HAVE AN EVACUATION ORDER, GO TODAY. Tomorrow the weather will get worse.”

Leon County Commissioner Rick Minor urged residents to take Hurricane Helene seriously, which is expected to make landfall south of Tallahassee as a Category 3 storm with winds of up to 115 mph.

In an email to his constituents Tuesday evening, Minor said he had been informed by Leon County emergency management officials who stated that if the storm continues on its current path, Leon County will be hit directly.

“On Thursday we will face sustained winds of 120 to 177 km/h for about six hours, resulting in thousands of downed trees, over a hundred blocked roads, hundreds of damaged buildings and power outages lasting many, many days,” he said. “But we must not panic – fortunately we all have enough time to plan carefully and prepare.”

Minor urged people to visit www.LeonReady.com, review the checklists and other information, and start preparing now.

“Listen to current storm forecasts, carefully consider the advice you receive from experts,” Minor said, “and make a plan for yourself, your family and your pets: Will you evacuate, go to an emergency shelter, or wait at home for the storm to pass?”

Minor said the forecast could change but warned people not to rely on it.

“But if current forecasts hold true, it's going to be bad,” he wrote. “Leon County residents cannot afford to underestimate the severity of this storm.”

When Tallahassee residents woke up Wednesday morning, there was no major change in the track of Hurricane Helene, which is expected to develop into Helene later in the day. There were no wind shears to mitigate the unprecedented threat to Tallahassee.

Florida's capital and its coastal neighbors of Big Bend remain in the crosshairs. For residents of Wakulla, Franklin and Taylor counties, National Weather Service meteorologists offered a grim wake-up call just hours after emergency officials ordered all county residents to evacuate.

“If this forecast comes to pass, this will be a nightmarish storm for Apalachee Bay,” meteorologists wrote in the region's latest cyclone advisory. “Please, please, please take all evacuation orders seriously.”

The exact impacts will depend heavily on the final track. Catastrophic wind damage is expected near the final point and inland along the track. Although the hurricane is forecast to move quickly, very high rainfall and saturated soils in some locations will still pose a serious flooding threat across the region. Tornadoes are also possible.

According to the National Weather Service in Tallahassee, Helene could render some areas “uninhabitable for weeks or months.” In addition, widespread power and communications outages are expected for an extended period.

The NWS said potential impacts include structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall collapses; total destruction of mobile homes; damage greatly aggravated by large flying projectiles; numerous large trees snapped or uprooted; blown over fences and street signs; many roads impassable due to large debris, and even more in urban or heavily wooded areas; many bridges, dams and access roads impassable.

Storm surges, which could reach 15 feet in some locations along Apalachee Bay, would be “significantly amplified” by strong waves. Other impacts of the surge include structural damage to buildings, many of which will be washed away; damage exacerbated by significant floating debris; nearshore escape routes and secondary roads being washed away or severely inundated; flood control systems and barriers could be overwhelmed; extreme beach erosion; new shoreline cuts possible; massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks and piers; numerous small boats being torn from their moorings, many being lifted ashore and beached.

Contact Jeff Burlew at [email protected] or follow @JeffBurlew on Twitter.

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