Ukraine prepared to fight North Korean troops in Russia's Kursk region on Wednesday, as the entry of a second nuclear power into Russia's war against Ukraine threatened to escalate and expand the conflict.

The US Pentagon confirmed on Tuesday that North Korean troops were in Kursk, where Ukraine launched a counter-invasion nearly three months ago.

Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder said there were “a small number (of North Korean troops) in the Kursk area, and a few thousand more are almost there or will arrive soon.”

A senior South Korean official told reporters on Wednesday that about 3,000 North Korean troops would be moved near the front lines.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed the operation on Monday. “Today I can confirm that North Korean troops have been sent to Russia and North Korean army units are stationed in the Kursk region,” he told reporters.

He called it “a significant escalation of (the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's) continued involvement in Russia's illegal war” and “a dangerous expansion of the Russian war.”

Ryder confirmed that North Korea had sent a total of 10,000 soldiers to eastern Russia for training. South Korean and Ukrainian intelligence services suggested last week that the number could be as high as 12,000.

The extent to which these troops could support Russia's war effort is unclear, as Russia's personnel needs are enormous.

Ukrainian ground forces commander Oleksandr Pavlyuk said via Telegram on Sunday that an estimated 10,520 Russians had been killed or wounded in the previous week.

In Kursk alone, Russia has suffered 17,800 casualties in the last three months, Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii said on Telegram, including 6,600 dead.

North Korea cannot make a significant difference, researcher Olena Guseinova said last week in a new study for the Friedrich Naumann Foundation.

“In perspective, the regime could potentially provide Russia with three to four additional units, consisting of 15,000 to 20,000 soldiers of various capabilities,” she concluded. “Even in such a case, however, North Korean assistance is unlikely to change the overall course of the war.”

The reasons, she said, were political and military. “The deployment of large numbers of soldiers poses challenges for controlling their movements in the field and increases the possibility of desertion or defection,” Guseinova wrote, requiring “security personnel to closely monitor the troops.”

She also said: “North Korea cannot afford to deplete its valuable human resources, especially given that its main opponent, South Korea, has a population twice as large.”

Beware of allies on both sides

U.S. messaging on the terms of Ukraine's engagement with North Korean forces was unclear, as officials appeared to have grappled with the implications of Washington openly encouraging a nuclear adversary's engagement through proxies.

Asked on Tuesday whether he supported Ukraine's attack on the North Koreans, US President Joe Biden said: “If they invade Ukraine, yes.”

Asked whether Ukraine was free to use U.S. weapons against North Korean troops, Ryder said: “We have made it very clear that Ukraine can use these capabilities to defend its territory from threats either from beyond the border or from there.” on Ukrainian territory.”

On Wednesday, South Korea appeared to back away from previous proposals to provide military support to Ukraine in retaliation for the North's support of Russia.

South Korea's Yonhap News Agency, citing sources in President Yoon Suk-yeol's office, said Seoul would not send 155mm shells to Ukraine.

A week earlier, an unnamed South Korean presidential official was quoted by Reuters as saying: “We would consider the supply of weapons for defense purposes as part of the phased scenario, and if it appears that they go too far, “We might as well.” Consider offensive use.”

South Korea will send an intelligence delegation to monitor the military effectiveness of North Korean troops.

There was also caution among Russia's friends.

Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted a BRICS summit in Kazan last week to show Russia has support in the world.

However, the Kazan Declaration, signed by China, India, Brazil and others, emphasized a peaceful resolution to the conflict “in accordance with the purposes and principles of the UN Charter.”

Article 2 of the Charter calls on nations to “settle their international disputes by peaceful means” and “to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any State in their international relations.”

Russia's only ally in Europe, Belarus, apparently denied that it could follow in North Korea's footsteps.

“It would be a step towards escalating the conflict if the armed forces of any country, even Belarus, were at the line of contact,” Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko told the BBC's Steve Rosenberg.

“Even if we were to get involved in war, that would be a path to escalation. Why? Because you, the Anglo-Saxons, would immediately say that another country has interfered on one side… so NATO troops would be sent to Ukraine.”

Russia's gradual progress continues

Last week, as it has this year, Russia continued to make small territorial gains within Ukraine itself.

On Sunday, Russian troops captured the settlement of Selidovo in the eastern Donetsk region, advancing from several directions at once.

In an apparent tactical innovation, Russian forces also mounted light first-person view (FPV) drones with ammunition on heavy reconnaissance drones, allowing them to penetrate deeper behind Ukrainian lines.

“The damage area was expanded due to the penetration depth of the main reconnaissance UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle), which … dropped the FPV drone directly in the impact area with the targets,” National Guard spokesman Vitaly Mylovydov told a telethon.

Despite its steady, small territorial gains, Russia has not reached anywhere near the pace of its original invasion, military experts said.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank, estimated that Russian gains averaged 14 square kilometers (5.4 square miles) per day in September, just over 1 percent of the 1,265 square kilometers (488 square miles) . Russian troops were detained per day in March 2022.

“Rapid Russian advances deep into Ukrainian territory, including the temporary capture of large parts of the Kiev, Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts, marked the first month of the major Russian invasion,” the ISW said, “while there have been more recent Russian advances.” through small, localized, tactical advances.”

Ukraine is expanding its defense industrial base

Angered by its allies' unwillingness or determination to supply the weapons it needs, Ukraine has pushed ahead with the development of its own defense industry over the past year.

At the fourth summit between Ukraine and the Nordic countries on Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for more investment in Ukraine's and Europe's defense industrial base.

“Please continue to develop your own industries and produce everything needed for defense, including sensitive goods such as microchips. “Europe needs industrial strength and independence from other parts of the world,” Zelensky said.

He was apparently referring to US restrictions on the use of its weapons in a short area of ​​the Ukrainian border, which also affect European-made weapons with US components. Ukraine has attempted to attack Russian airfields with US long-range weapons.

Ukraine's industrial policy has produced impressive results. The Defense Ministry said on Tuesday that it signed contracts for the supply of 1.6 million drones of various types in the first ten months of the year and delivered almost 1.3 million of them.

Ukraine has replaced 155mm grenades with drones, where Russia has a roughly 2:1 advantage, and used them with devastating precision against Russian drones, dugouts and tanks.

Ukraine's Armed Forces said drone pilots practiced destroying Russian Gerbera drones as training for fighting Iranian Shahed drones.

On Friday, Zelensky told his National Security Council: “The biggest priority is, of course, drones; including drones capable of shooting down Shaheds and other attack drones.”

Armin Papperger, CEO of German defense company Rheinmetall, told Ukrainian news agency TSN on Sunday that the company has completed construction of the first of four plants in Ukraine and will begin producing Lynx armored fighting vehicles for the Ukrainian armed forces by the end of the year will begin. In addition, Rheinmetall builds facilities for the production of gunpowder, ammunition and anti-aircraft systems.