Trump's lead in the betting market shrank over the weekend - but he remains the bookmakers' favorite to win

Topline

Former President Donald Trump's lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in election betting markets narrowed sharply over the weekend – with the Democrat even taking a small lead in one of the five major markets – as the betting market responded to some positive recent polls for Harris. including a shock poll showing her ahead in the red state of Iowa.

Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump greets his supporters during a campaign rally … (+) Event at the Resch Center in Green Bay, Wisconsin.

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Important facts

According to the Election Betting Odds Tracker, which consolidates betting numbers from five major markets, bookmakers now give Trump a 54.6% chance of winning in November, compared to 45% for Harris.

This is a significant shift from last week's numbers, where Trump was well ahead at 63%, while his Democratic opponent was at around 36%.

Bookmakers at PredictIt – where Trump's lead was previously narrowest – are now giving Harris slightly better odds to win this week at 55 cents per share (roughly a 55% chance of winning) compared to 51 cents for Trump.

Bettors on crypto-based betting platform Polymarket – whose numbers have been touted by both Trump and Elon Musk – also believe Trump is still the favorite, with about a 58% chance, compared to 42.2% for Harris.

While Trump is still well ahead on Polymarket, the current numbers are a big shift from Thursday's 65-35 in Trump's favor.

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What triggered the upswing in election betting markets?

While there had been some movement in Harris' favor since Friday, a major shift occurred late Saturday evening after respected pollster Ann Selzer released numbers from her team's latest poll in Iowa. Selzer's poll, published by the Des Moines Register, showed Harris with a surprising three-point lead over Trump (47% to 44%) in a state where the former president held office in 2016 and 2020. While the poll is likely an outlier – another poll shows Trump leading 53-43% according to Emerson College – Selzer's recent release of some of the most accurate numbers for Iowa suggests the race may be closer than bookmakers originally predicted. Immediately after the poll's release, Harris briefly took the lead in Kalshi's market, while Trump's lead in Polymarket fell to around 11 points. However, Trump's consolidated odds in five markets have recovered slightly in the past 24 hours after falling to 51-48 early Sunday.

Big number

0.9%. That's Harris' lead over Trump in national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight's weighted average.

Surprising fact

Unlike Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt, US residents can only place bets on election results.