Republican officials are panicking after a comedian made racist jokes about Latinos and the territory of Puerto Rico during a rally for former President Donald Trump at Madison Square Garden on Sunday night, fearing it could cause them to lose votes in swing states.

Since making gains among Latino voters in 2020, the Trump campaign has invested heavily in outreach to the Latino community and voters of color in general. Polls suggest that appears to be helping him especially with Latino men, who are evenly divided between him and Vice President Kamala Harris. It's not yet clear to what extent the comments at the rally could derail those efforts, but in swing states where the margin of victory is expected to be slim, even small shifts in support could have big consequences.

At the rally, Texas-based comedian Tony Hinchcliffe called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage” and said that Latinos “love having babies,” adding, “There's no taking them off.” They don't. They are coming in, just like they did in our country.”

The backlash came quickly. The Trump campaign released a statement saying Hinchcliffe's comments did not reflect Trump's thoughts. Republicans in heavily Puerto Rican districts have condemned the comments: Rep. María Elvira Salazar (R-FL) said they “detest” them and do not “reflect the values ​​of the Republican Party.” Shortly after the comments, Puerto Rican musician Bad Bunny posted a video of Vice President Kamala Harris on his Instagram, a post that was reportedly an endorsement from Harris.

Trump has made racist comments about Latino immigrants throughout his campaign; for example, by claiming that they are “poisoning the blood” of the country. But Hinchcliffe's comments went a step further, attacking Latino citizens, some of whom may not feel personally slighted when Trump speaks about immigrants.

“This guy was talking generally about the whole island (Puerto Rico),” said Mike Madrid, a Latino GOP strategist who supports Harris. “To equate this with Trump’s past anti-immigrant comments misses the point. This guy attacked native Latin Americans.”

How the consequences of the rally could affect the swing states

Puerto Rican voters make up a significant portion of the electorate in swing states, particularly in Pennsylvania, where their population was about 456,600 as of the 2020 U.S. Census. According to FiveThirtyEight polling averages, polls in the state are nearly tied.

There are also about 115,000 Puerto Ricans in North Carolina, 65,000 in Wisconsin and 50,000 in Michigan. Overall, Latino voters represent a larger share of the vote than the likely margin of victory in all seven contests.

Much of Trump's gains among Latino voters in 2020 came from Puerto Ricans and Mexican-Americans, once all-blue voting blocs. This might be surprising given Trump's record on Puerto Rico during his time in office. He blocked aid to Puerto Rico after the devastating Hurricane Maria in 2017 and reportedly joked about the U.S. trading Puerto Rico for Greenland.

Since then, he has managed to appeal to Puerto Rican voters with his economic messages as many continue to suffer from the pressure of higher prices, even as inflation has fallen significantly since its peak in 2022. But these voters are more cautious about Trump than other GOP figures like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, suggesting the former president's newfound support could be weak.

The question is how much the comments about the rally affect the mood. With the election just days away, voters are paying attention. Whether Trump regrets it or not, this is part of his closing argument.

“I think what may have happened here is that the Trump campaign has finally done what the Harris campaign failed to do, which is to reduce Trump's support among Latino voters, particularly in Pennsylvania,” Madrid said. “I guess the question is, by how much?”