Trump claims 'oppression' after Kamala Harris wins Iowa poll

Former President Donald Trump joined a chorus of Republicans criticizing the Des Moines Register's latest Iowa poll that showed him trailing Democrat Kamala Harris by three percentage points.

At a campaign rally on Sunday in Lititz, Pennsylvania, Trump sought to discredit the poll results released Saturday evening by calling them “suppression.”

“This is called oppression. They are oppressing,” Trump said. “And it should actually be illegal.”

J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., the firm that conducts the Iowa poll, said in a statement Sunday that it is common for candidates to question unfavorable poll results.

“I think this poll has a good chance of motivating Republicans to get out and vote,” Selzer said. “Maybe they thought they would win easily. So it’s hard to believe it’s oppression.”

The Iowa poll showed Harris leading Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters in Iowa – those who have already voted or say they “definitely” will vote. The margin of error is plus/minus 3.4 percentage points.

It was a surprising result in a state Trump had previously represented twice. The survey caused a stir on the Internet on Saturday evening and provided fodder for talk shows on Sunday, in which analysts dissected the results and observers produced memes on social media.

At Sunday morning's Truth Social, Trump reiterated his support for Iowa farmers and disparaged the poll for being conducted by “a Trump hater who called it completely wrong last time.”

But the Iowa Poll has a long history of accurately assessing the state of the race the weekend before a general election, including the last two presidential elections.

In 2016 and 2020, the Iowa poll was one of the few polls to pick up on Trump's unexpected strength before Election Day.

In 2016, the Iowa poll showed Trump leading Democrat Hillary Clinton by seven percentage points before ultimately winning the state by nine percentage points.

And in 2020, he led Democrat Joe Biden by 7 percentage points before winning the state by 8 percentage points.

Earlier this year, the Iowa poll showed Trump leading Biden by 18 percentage points.

Nevertheless, the former president discounted the results on Sunday. His team pointed to a separate Emerson College poll that shows him leading in Iowa.

“And we even have the polls up,” Trump said at his rally in Pennsylvania. “But I think it's about a lot more than the polls.” You know the polls, I'm telling you, you can make these idiots sing. You get the right pollster you can do – and you do it – you do real damage. You know when you like that person from Iowa. Today the election is basically, we're talking about Turkey, a poll – which is different from any other poll. Because it wasn't even in question. It's really the opposite. I’m way up there.”

Iowa Republican leaders echoed his dismissals, calling the Iowa poll an outlier.

“Iowa Republicans are leading in early voting for the first time in decades and increasing our voter registration lead by over 130,000,” Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds tweeted Saturday night. “President Trump will win Iowa if we vote and our friends vote. Let’s prove the Des Moines Register wrong again!”

The most recent Iowa poll for the 2018 gubernatorial race found Reynolds down two percentage points from her Democratic challenger – a result that was also within the poll's margin of error. In the end, she won by about 3 percentage points.

Democrats in Iowa cheered the result while warning their supporters that they must continue to volunteer, knock on doors and go to the polls.

“The fact that Vice President Harris is now leading Donald Trump in the latest Des Moines Register poll is obviously very exciting for us,” Rita Hart, chairwoman of the Iowa Democratic Party, said in a news conference Saturday evening. “But I recognize that people here in Iowa are smart and know the difference between a poll and the results of an election. We still have three days until this election. So remember, this is just a poll and what really matters is that Iowans show up and make their voices heard.”

House Democratic Leader Jennifer Konfrst, D-Windsor Heights, said she was “pleasantly surprised, but not shocked” by the results.

She said the results were consistent with what she was hearing locally from women across the political spectrum after the state's GOP-backed six-week abortion ban took effect earlier this summer.

“They are tired of politicians meddling in their doctor’s offices and are looking all over the ballot for people who are actually fighting for their freedoms,” Konfrst said. “And this issue is important and real, and the fact that Vice President Harris is talking about the same rights and freedoms all the way down to the candidates for the Iowa House of Representatives shows that this is what Iowans are looking for.”

Election day is Tuesday and polling stations are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m

Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Des Moines Register. She also covers the 2024 presidential election for USA TODAY as a senior national campaign correspondent. Reach her at [email protected] or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter at @brianneDMR.

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