Tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico has a 60 percent probability of formation

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring several tropical disturbances Saturday morning, one of which has expanded across much of the Gulf of Mexico and has a higher chance of developing into a storm.

According to the NHC, the tropical wave has a 60 percent chance of forming in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico within the next seven days, and it is expected to form early to mid-next week.

The other three tropical disturbances, including the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon, have a low probability of forming.

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Here’s what we know so far:

NHC tracks tropical system in Gulf of Mexico with 60% probability of formation

According to the NHC's 7 a.m. weather alert, an extensive low-pressure system is likely to form over the northwestern Caribbean and adjacent parts of Central America early to mid-next week. After that, gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the system slowly moves north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over parts of Central America over the next few days.

Probability of occurrence within 48 hours: Low, close to 0%.
Probability of formation within 7 days: Medium, 60%.

More: Where are all the predicted hurricanes? Experts fear they are still coming.

Hurricane Tracker: NHC tracks three more tropical systems in the Atlantic

How many named storms were there in 2024?

So far, there have been five named storms in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season:

Tropical Storm Alberto: Reached the Texas coast in June 2024 with some flooding and had less impact on the region than originally forecast.
Hurricane Beryl: Struck the Texas coast as a Category 1 hurricane near Matagorda on July 8, killing at least 38 people and setting a record for tornado spawn.
Tropical Storm Chris: Brought heavy rains and flooding to parts of Mexico in early July.
Hurricane Debby: Made landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida, on August 5, causing severe damage along the east coast and killing at least 10 people.
Hurricane Ernesto: On August 24, it struck Puerto Rico with significant flooding and then Bermuda. It was a moderate hurricane with three indirect fatalities.
Hurricane Francine: Made landfall near Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana, on September 11 as a Category 2 hurricane, bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall before rapidly weakening after landfall.
Tropical Storm Gordon: Developed on September 13, but was hampered by wind shear and intensified only minimally. Gordon weakened back to a tropical depression on September 15 before degenerating into a low pressure area on September 17.

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— USA TODAY reporter Dinah Voyles Pulver contributed to this report.