TAMPA, Fla. – Tropical Storm Rafael is strengthening over the Caribbean Sea before reaching the Gulf of Mexico this week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

As of 4 a.m. Tuesday, Rafael was at 17.0 N, 78.0 W with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. The storm was moving northwest at a speed of 13 miles per hour.

According to the NHC, Rafael will strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday and then make landfall in western Cuba, where a hurricane warning is in effect.

Tropical Storm Rafael is expected to strengthen into a hurricane in the coming days and then weaken over the northern Gulf of Mexico.

After moving into the Gulf of Mexico, the storm is expected to turn northwest and weaken back to a tropical storm as it encounters cooler water temperatures and stronger wind shear.

“Fringe Impacts” in the Bay Area

FOX 13 meteorologist Dave Osterberg says that while Rafael is expected to remain west of the Bay Area, there will be “marginal impacts” across the region, particularly Thursday morning.

“We won’t get any sustained tropical storm-force or hurricane-force winds this way,” Osterberg said. “But along the coast there could be strong gusts and a few rain squalls.”

By the weekend, models show Rafael heading in one of two paths: either continue west and meander across the Gulf, or turn north toward the Florida Panhandle, likely as a tropical storm.

Models show Rafael either meandering across the western Gulf of Mexico or turning north, possibly toward the Florida Panhandle.

“In any case, we expect this storm to weaken as it moves into the Gulf,” Osterberg said.

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