Tropical Storm Rafael becomes a hurricane before hitting Cuba

Tropical Storm Rafael continues to strengthen Tuesday as it swirls in the warm Caribbean Sea on its way to the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, as weather officials monitor possible impacts on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Rafael is expected to pass over Jamaica on Tuesday afternoon before strengthening into a hurricane near the Cayman Islands and gaining momentum ahead of its expected landfall in Cuba on Wednesday. “The storm is currently in an atmospheric and oceanic environment that is quite conducive to strengthening,” the National Hurricane Center said.

Given the great uncertainty in the long-term forecast, the National Hurricane Center said it was too early to determine what impact, if any, Rafael could have on parts of the northern Gulf Coast.

Forecasts show the storm could make landfall anywhere from the Texas coast to the Florida Panhandle over the weekend, according to AccuWeather, which said the highest chance of landfall would be along the central Louisiana coast. Other possible scenarios include the storm turning west and moving across western Mexico.

The good news: Drier air and stronger vertical wind shear are expected to limit the hurricane's strength as it rages over the Gulf of Mexico. “This will not be a situation where there is an intensifying major hurricane making landfall in the U.S., but rather somewhat less severe wind intensity,” AccuWeather's forecast said.

Still, the storm threatens to bring flooding, mudslides, damaging winds and dangerous surf and current conditions to western Cuba, which is still reeling from the collapse of its power grid and Hurricane Oscar.

The Cayman Islands and much of Cuba are under a hurricane warning Tuesday morning, the hurricane center said, urging that “preparations to protect life and property should be completed expeditiously.” Tropical storm warnings and watches were active throughout Jamaica, parts of Cuba and the Florida Keys.

Where is Tropical Storm Rafael?

Tropical Storm Rafael was located about 80 miles south-southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica, and about 230 miles southeast of Grand Cayman island, according to the hurricane center's 7 a.m. update. With winds of 60 miles per hour, the storm is moving northwest through the Caribbean at 13 miles per hour.

Rafael is expected to pass near Jamaica on Tuesday, bringing torrential rain across the island nation that could trigger mudslides in higher terrain.

As the storm moves north over warm Caribbean waters, it is expected to gain intensity and reach hurricane strength as it passes near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday evening, producing hurricane-force winds, storm surges and damaging waves, the hurricane center said.

The storm is expected to strengthen further Wednesday before making landfall in western Cuba, where forecasters say the storm could raise water levels as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels. Between 3 and 6 inches of rain fell in Cuba and parts of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, with up to 10 inches in isolated cases.

Later Wednesday, the storm will pass the Florida Keys, bringing 1 to 3 inches of rain, according to the hurricane center, which added: “A few tornadoes are possible over the Keys and southwestern-most mainland Florida on Wednesday.”

According to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach, Rafael is the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. On average, there are 14 storms per year.

Tropical Storm Rafael tracker

Contributors: Doyle Rice and Gabe Hauari, USA TODAY

Where is Tropical Storm Rafael?

Tropical Storm Rafael tracker

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