Tropical storm possible, heavy rain coming

Ryan Truchelut
| WeatherTiger

The Waffle Houses aren't even all back open yet, but I'm sorry to report that the Eastern Gulf Coast is dealing with another tropical threat this week.

But just as many storm-damaged Waffle Houses offer limited menus, this round of potential activity in the Gulf will be smaller in scope, impact and areas affected than the terrible Helene.

Heavy rains on the Florida peninsula beginning this weekend are the main threat, but unfortunately coastal flooding and wind risks are also increasing in Central and South Florida.

What to expect – and what not – from the brewing Gulf storm

Let's be clear about what this threat will NOT be before we delve into what it could be.

First, it will not cause rainfall in the southern Appalachians or northern Georgia. Fortunately, these depleted areas will remain much drier than normal for at least the next week.

Second, the Gulf environment is not conducive to the formation of another major hurricane. Third, steering winds blowing from west to east should discourage anything developing in the Gulf south of the worn-out Big Bend and the depleted Panhandle.

Additionally, there is no threat of landfall from two massive central Atlantic storms, Kirk and Leslie. Hurricane Kirk is the third Category 4 or higher storm of 2024 and the first not to cause severe damage to people.

Kirk (and to a lesser extent Leslie) will pose a strong surf and rip current threat on Atlantic beaches next week, but will otherwise be beautiful to view from a distance as they enter the sea over 1,000 miles from land. Here's to you, Kirk and Leslie, you are the true geniuses of today.

Name or not, the storm will bring heavy rain to Florida

Unfortunately, not all tropical weather this week will follow this brave example.

I have been watching another Central American Gyre (CAG) form over the southern Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean since last weekend, persisting as a widespread disturbance without focused convection.

In recent days, a concentrated rotational movement left over from Tropical Depression 11-E in the eastern Pacific has crossed southern Mexico and entered the southwestern Gulf relatively unscathed, producing storms in the Bay of Campeche.

Over the weekend, this burst of energy could cause the diffuse disturbance to do what was less likely a few days ago: transform into a more organized, more tropical system on Monday or Tuesday, albeit a complex one that is not purely tropical embedded environment.

If you've been following my forecasts, I've talked about how the various fronts moving across the Gulf in the coming week mean that the structure of the system could be broader than that of a typical tropical storm or hurricane, and that's why It is not clear whether the resulting system would meet the requirements to receive a name from the NHC.

The fact that the Pacific Disturbance has entered the mix and convection is consolidating on the southwest side of the CAG increases the likelihood of a tropical storm developing, although its interaction with nearby fronts means widespread rainfall impacts for Florida regardless , whether the disturbance is present or is not a named storm.

The possibility of a minor hurricane attack on the Florida peninsula is possible as the Panhandle perceives fall

The Gulf is generally a hostile place for tropical activity this week, particularly its northern half, where the subtropical jet stream will blow from west to east while a deep trough of low pressure digs into the East Coast.

In fact, after some rain chances through Monday, the Panhandle will cool through Tuesday on the other side of a protective cool front. As higher elevation steering winds steer the low east-northeast over the southern Gulf, vertical wind shear is expected to increase as the wind gains some breadth and approaches west-central or southwest Florida by midweek.

Given the front to the north, the storm system's most likely path is an east-northeast track crossing the Florida coast somewhere between just north of the Tampa Bay area and the Keys, although this is an extremely uncertain forecast at this point.

If the disturbance occurs quickly by Monday while a favorable environment still prevails over the southern Gulf, hurricane intensity is on the table for landfall during the week.

However, given the expected increase in shear from Tuesday, it is also entirely plausible that a less intense, broader and weaker tropical storm, a hybrid low or a convective frontal system could end up forming here. There are still many options, so check back in a few days for a better, or at least less uncertain, answer.

Be prepared for excessive rainfall in Florida, especially along and south of I-4

However, the excessive rainfall, which will be the most widespread impact of this storm system, is a high reliability forecast under the various scenarios. Beginning Sunday, heavy rain will move eastward from the Gulf into peninsular South and Central Florida, particularly along and south of I-4.

Rainfall is expected to be limited in Big Bend and north central Florida and end by Tuesday. With South and Central Florida experiencing intermittently heavy rainfall through at least midweek, rainfall there can exceed 5 inches and locally topping 10 inches, typically over seven days, and residents should be alert to the risk of flash flooding regard.

We will wait and see how things develop before discussing any potential wind or flooding issues, except that the risk of coastal flooding is higher in areas further south of the track with onshore currents.

Still, this potential should be monitored throughout the Tampa Bay area and south, especially as the region continues to suffer the effects of one of the most severe and widespread flooding events along the peninsula's Gulf Coast.

There is little precedent for a storm of this type to develop into a hurricane, but this season has defied the odds

One final note: There is little precedent for hurricanes hitting Florida's Gulf Coast in October on an east-northeast approach, indicating the shearing influence of mid-latitude weather.

Most of Florida's late-season threats that developed in the southern Gulf were tropical storms or non-tropical lows. However, there are more things in heaven and earth than meets the eye in climatology, and as we have learned once again in recent weeks, the events of our weather past do not limit the threats of the future.

History also shows that late-season hurricane risk remains high in Florida through late October, shifting southward over time. So South and Central Florida will have to pay close attention this coming week as hurricane season doesn't give us what we all want and just lets us eat our waffles in peace.

I'll be back on Monday with an update. Until then, keep watching the sky.

Dr. Ryan Truchelut is chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, a Tallahassee company that provides forensic meteorological expert services as well as subscription agricultural and hurricane forecasts. Visit Weathertiger.com for more information. Email Ryan Truchelut at [email protected].

What to expect – and what not – from the brewing Gulf storm

Name or not, the storm will bring heavy rain to Florida

The possibility of a minor hurricane attack on the Florida peninsula is possible as the Panhandle perceives fall

Be prepared for excessive rainfall in Florida, especially along and south of I-4

There is little precedent for a storm of this type to develop into a hurricane, but this season has defied the odds

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