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Tropical Storm Leslie is forming, Hurricane Kirk could hit Florida


Tropical Storm Leslie is forming, Hurricane Kirk could hit Florida

(This story has been updated to add new information.)

The National Hurricane Center is tracking three systems in the Atlantic, including a major hurricane that continues to strengthen.

According to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Kirk is currently a Category 4 storm and is expected to become even stronger. A major hurricane is a hurricane with sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour, making it a Category 3, 4, or 5 storm.

While Kirk is expected to remain over open water, the storm's waves are expected to reach the east coast of the U.S. and the Bahamas on Sunday, bringing life-threatening surf and dangerous rip currents.

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Kirk was the third hurricane since September 25th – after Helene and Isaac. It was the first time in recorded history (since 1851) that the Atlantic experienced three hurricanes between September 25 and October 1, Dr. Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University who specializes in seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic basin.

President Joe Biden landed at Tallahassee International Airport on Thursday (October 3) en route to Perry, Florida in Taylor County to see firsthand the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene.

Also in the Atlantic Basin – which consists of the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico – there is Tropical Storm Leslie and a potential low pressure system in the Caribbean moving into the Gulf.

The next named storms in the Atlantic hurricane season will be Milton and Nadine.

Is a hurricane coming to Florida?

A hurricane is not currently expected to make landfall, but a widespread low pressure area is expected to develop over the Gulf of Mexico later this weekend or early next week.

Environmental conditions currently limit the potential for tropical development of the system, but regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall could occur over parts of the Florida Peninsula next week, according to the Hurricane Center.

Here's the latest update from the National Hurricane Center as of Thursday, Oct. 3, at 5 p.m.:

Hurricane Kirk: What you should know

  • Location: 1,085 miles east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands; 1,655 southwest of the Azores
  • Maximum continuous wind: 130 miles per hour
  • Movement: Northwest at 12 miles per hour

➤ Hurricane Kirk Spaghetti Models

As of 5 p.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Kirk was near latitude 21.1 north and longitude 46.7 west.

Kirk is moving northwest at about 12 miles per hour, and this general movement is expected to continue into early Friday.

A turn to the north and north-northeast with higher forward speed is forecast for the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to nearly 130 mph with stronger gusts.

Kirk is a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Further strengthening is forecast over the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles.

Tropical Storm Leslie: What you should know

  • Location: 580 miles west-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands
  • Maximum continuous wind: 50 miles per hour
  • Movement: West at 6 miles per hour

➤ Spaghetti Models for Tropical Storm Leslie

As of 5 p.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was near latitude 10.1 north and longitude 31.5 west.

Leslie is moving west at about 6 miles per hour.

Slow westward movement is expected through this evening, followed by slightly faster west-northwestward movement Friday through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to nearly 50 mph with stronger gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast over the next 48 hours, and Leslie is expected to become a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical storm-force winds extend up to 45 miles (72 kilometers) from the center.

What else is there and how likely are they to intensify?

Northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Gulf of Mexico are associated with a surface trough.

A widespread low pressure area is likely to develop over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend or early next week, but subsequent tropical or subtropical development could be limited by the system's possible interaction with a frontal boundary.

Regardless of developments, locally heavy rainfall could occur over the next few days in parts of Mexico and parts of the Florida Peninsula from the end of this weekend into next week.

  • Chance of development within 48 hours: low, close to 0 percent.
  • Chance of occurrence over 7 days: low, 30 percent.

What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?

The shaded areas on a tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone – which could be a tropical depression, a tropical storm or a hurricane – could develop,” said National Hurricane Deputy Director Jamie Rhome Center.

The colors make it clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange being medium and red being high.

The National Hurricane Center generally does not issue tropical warnings until there is a named storm, but there is one exception.

“If a system is near land and has potential for development, the National Hurricane Center will not wait to issue warnings, even if the system has not yet become a true storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.

Who is likely to be affected?

Hurricane Kirk is expected to remain in the central Atlantic, but the storm's waves are expected to reach the east coast of the United States and the Bahamas on Sunday, bringing life-threatening surf and dangerous rip currents.

According to Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, residents along the Gulf Coast, including Florida, should watch as the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.

➤ Forecasting excessive rainfall

For central and southern Florida, heavy rains of up to 3 inches are likely in some areas between Sunday and Tuesday, Truchelut said.

Tropical Storm Leslie is still too far from the United States to assess whether it will impact Florida or the United States

Meteorologists urge all residents to continue to monitor the tropics and always be prepared. This advice is particularly important during what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.

Weather warnings and warnings are issued in Florida

Stay informed. Receive weather alerts via SMS

When is hurricane season over?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

The peak of the season was September 10, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

National Hurricane Center Map: What Are Meteorologists Watching Now?

Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

Interactive map: Hurricanes and tropical storms that passed near your city

Excessive rainfall forecast

What's next?

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(This story has been updated to add new information.)

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