Tropical danger threatens Florida in November, warns AccuWeather

The threat of further storms could last into December

AccuWeather predicts that up to three tropical storms could form in November due to high ocean temperatures.

And then the news gets even worse for Florida and the East Coast of the United States, which are still recovering from hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton.

Florida and the East Coast are most likely to be affected, according to AccuWeather forecasters.

➤ Track all active storms

➤ Weather warnings via SMS: Sign up to receive updates on current storms and weather events by location

The threat of additional storms could even last into December, although the official end of hurricane season is November 30th.

The next named storms of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be Patty, Rafael and Sara.

November could bring 1-3 tropical storms

“We've been saying since March that the end of this year's hurricane season could be quite active,” said Alex DaSilva, senior hurricane expert at AccuWeather.

“We expect a late-season surge in November, with one to three more named storms possible in the Atlantic basin.”

DaSilva also said there was a risk of tropical unrest until early December.

“We may even see a tropical storm in December this year. This doesn’t happen very often, but the very warm sea surface temperatures could make it possible this year.”

The Climate Prediction Center publishes the Global Tropics Hazards Outlook for November

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts there will be up to a 40% chance of a tropical depression developing in the Caribbean between October 30 and November 5. November 6th to 12th.

Preliminary forecasts for November 13-19 indicate less than 20% or more tropical depression development in the Caribbean.

A “robust” Madden-Julian Oscillation brings the “potential for tropical cyclone development over the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean Sea during Week 1-2,” the Climate Prediction Center announced Oct. 28.

Why are there so many tropical storms so late in the season?

Extremely warm water temperatures that have favored the formation of storms throughout the season continue to favor the formation of tropical cyclones.

“Sea temperatures remain above historical averages across the Caribbean and most of the Atlantic Ocean. There are also zones of warmer water in the Gulf of Mexico,” AccuWeather said.

Another factor is the lack of wind shear. Without wind shear, a tropical storm can develop and strengthen.

“These warm waters not only provide additional thermal energy to fuel the rapid intensification of tropical storms and hurricanes, but they also have the potential to extend the hurricane season beyond what has been typical over the last century,” said Brett Anderson, senior meteorologist and climate expert at AccuWeather.

“An earlier start and later end to hurricane season may well be what our near future holds.”

Florida, US East Coast at risk from tropical storms in November

AccuWeather meteorologists said there was virtually no threat of direct impacts to the western Gulf of Mexico along the coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama in November.

“The western and central coast of the Gulf of Mexico is unlikely to experience any direct impacts for the remainder of this hurricane season.”

The news isn't so good for Florida.

“We are concerned that areas, the entire state of Florida and even the Carolinas, could be at risk of experiencing further tropical influence this season,” DaSilva said.

Could Florida experience a hurricane in early November?

“We are becoming increasingly confident that the next named storm in the Atlantic Basin could form within the next week,” said Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather's chief on-air meteorologist.

“There is a large area of high pressure to the northeast that has sent a blocked front south. This sets off a chain reaction that begins with showers and thunderstorms in the southern Caribbean.”

“It wouldn't shock me if we were dealing with a hurricane here, possibly in early November sometime,” DaSilva said, pointing to a system in the western Caribbean.

➤ Tropical storm? Hurricane?! It is possible at the beginning of November. What Florida residents should know

➤ Tropics Watch, October 29: The National Hurricane Center gives the Caribbean a 40% chance of developing. Impact on Florida?

The National Hurricane Center estimates a 40 percent chance of the system developing over the next seven days and predicts it could become a tropical depression late this week or over the weekend.

AccuWeather has predicted that the system will likely become a named storm in early November, although there are different scenarios for where it could go.

Some of these scenarios could potentially impact Florida sometime between November 7th and 10th.

North track: “If a storm develops, it could move over Cuba or Hispaniola and move into the open Atlantic, but we must be alert to the possibility of possible impacts to Florida. The high pressure area could potentially prevent a storm from moving forward.” “We're going to destroy the ocean and essentially force the storm to turn west toward Florida,” DaSilva said.
West route: If the high pressure area weakens, the storm could turn north and possibly affect southern Florida.

When is Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

Countdown Clock: When does hurricane season end?

What's next?

We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local website's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.