Following a Hurricane Hunters watch Sunday afternoon, the area in the Caribbean that we are monitoring for tropical development has been classified as Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 as further development is expected over the next few days.

This system is expected to become Tropical Storm Raphael early this week. The National Hurricane Center has released its official cone forecast.

The environment in which this system forms is characterized by warmer water and low shear, making it more suitable for further development as it moves towards the Caribbean. A hurricane is expected to hit the Gulf. But things change from there.

As this system moves into the Gulf, it will weaken. The waters of the Gulf are much cooler than those of the Caribbean, there will be much higher shear in the Gulf and the air will be slightly drier. With all of these things, it really has no chance of becoming a strong system.

Given the many factors that will come into play when it reaches the Gulf midweek, the NHC has determined that this cone forecast is very preliminary and will change as the forecast progresses.

In the current Spaghetti model we can see the uncertainty of the route upon arrival in the Gulf, as it is still a fairly long-range forecast at this point. There are many more environmental factors to consider between now and the middle and end of the week.

One thing that is currently very confident is that this storm will weaken significantly once it reaches the Gulf, regardless of where it ends up due to the hostile environment it will encounter.

The bottom line is that it is far too early to give details and there is still a lot of uncertainty. As the forecast develops, we will know more and provide updates. At the moment this is not an immediate threat. Expect only scattered rain and rough surf next week.