The timeline for Tropical Storm Patty has been pushed back slightly. See Impact on Florida

A tropical disturbance in the southwest Caribbean Sea could become a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Patty this weekend or early next week. AccuWeather suggests two scenarios for the possible path of the system, and Florida could be affected by both.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the system, which it says could form over the weekend or early next week. The NHC estimates a 40% chance of the storm developing, but AccuWeather classifies it as “high risk.”

Warm surface and deep water temperatures, low wind shear, and the Central American Gyre (CAG) all contribute to the development of the system.

Here's what Floridians should know about the potential storm:

Potential Tropical Storm Patty pushed back slightly

The timeline for when a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Patty could form has been pushed back to this weekend or early next week because the system takes time to develop.

AccuWeather outlines two scenarios in which a storm could hit Florida

AccuWeather has laid out two possible scenarios in which a tropical storm or tropical depression could strengthen in the coming week.

Western track: On the western track, the storm would develop early next week and could potentially impact South Florida.
Northern route: The northern track accelerates the timeline for a weekend development that could impact Florida and the Carolinas.

“Storms in the Caribbean typically move north or northeast during November. This means Floridians and visitors to the Carolinas (including the Gulf Coast) will need to keep a close eye on developments,” warned Alex DaSilva, senior hurricane expert at AccuWeather . “Even if a tropical storm forms and moves toward Mexico or Central America, changing steering winds can turn that storm northeast and later toward Florida.”

The development of the system will be slow, but strengthening could occur quickly

As we have already seen, it can take some time to get the system up and organized. This is fairly typical behavior for storms coming out of the CAG, but the slow development shouldn't give anyone a false sense of security.

Once development occurs, storms can quickly intensify. AccuWeather cites the example of Hurricane Oscar, which quickly grew from a tropical storm to a hurricane within a few hours.

Possible timeline for Tropical Storm Patty

There is still no exact timeline for when a possible storm could impact the United States. Currently, the best estimates are that the system could develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm this weekend or early next week.

Once development occurs, meteorologists will quickly provide information about the storm's path and schedule.

What else is happening in the Gulf of Mexico?

The NHC reports a strong high pressure system near Nova Scotia that is causing strong easterly winds across much of the Gulf of Mexico. Water depth varies from 5 to 8 feet in most areas and 2 to 4 feet in the southwestern Gulf. Some parts of the Gulf are experiencing isolated thunderstorms and forecasts expect these conditions to continue throughout the weekend.

What else is happening in the Caribbean?

Various parts of the Caribbean will experience strong winds and moderate seas caused by the same high pressure system near Nova Scotia.

Isolated thunderstorms will occur in several areas. A low pressure area is expected to develop in the southwest Caribbean, potentially becoming a tropical depression over the weekend or early next week.

Strong winds are expected to continue in certain areas for most of the week and rough seas are expected to spread to the northeastern Caribbean by Thursday.