The system in the Caribbean could become a tropical depression

The National Hurricane Center said Tuesday it is continuing to track a system in the southwest Caribbean Sea that could develop into a tropical depression later this week.

The hurricane center said a “large low pressure area” was likely to develop in a few days and that gradual development was possible after that.

“A tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend as the system begins to drift north or northeast toward the central Caribbean Sea,” the NHC said in a statement Tuesday morning. Forecasters estimate the system has a 40 percent chance of forming over the next seven days.

Two conditions that have played a role during this hurricane season could allow the formation of another depression or tropical storm or even a hurricane: low wind shear and very warm water.

“If there is low wind shear, which we expect, I think a tropical depression or storm will form,” said AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.

“If all the pieces come together, it could even become a hurricane,” said Alex DaSilva, senior hurricane expert at AccuWeather, in a phone interview Monday, Oct. 28.

Two different paths are possible for the evolving system in the Caribbean, DaSilva said. Based on very early predictions, the timing for both scenarios would be November 7-10.

The next named storms of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be Patty and Rafael.

Weather forecast: Weather extremes forecast this week: what to expect from coast to coast

NHC also tracks two systems in the Pacific Ocean

Meteorologists at the hurricane center are also tracking a low pressure area about 1,500 miles (2,400 kilometers) west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula that is producing “disorganized shower activity,” the NHC said Tuesday.

“Although little has changed in this system over the past few days, a tropical depression could still form in a few days as the system moves generally westward,” meteorologists said Tuesday. There is a 40 percent chance that the system will form within the next seven days.

In addition, a “weak low-pressure area” located about 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is also experiencing showers and thunderstorms.

While slow development of this system is possible over the next few days, winds at higher elevations are expected to be less conducive to the system's development, and the NHC gives the system a 20 percent chance of forming over the next seven days.

Atlantic Storm Tracker

Gabe Hauari is a nationally featured news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at [email protected].

NHC also tracks two systems in the Pacific Ocean

Atlantic Storm Tracker

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