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The Electoral College map projector flips all contested states to Donald Trump


The Electoral College map projector flips all contested states to Donald Trump

Former President Donald Trump is winning in every battleground state, according to a new Electoral College map projection.

The RealClearPolitics poll tracker shows that if there are no toss-up states, Trump will claim all seven swing states. This comes after Wisconsin, which had previously been led by Vice President Kamala Harris since early August, was unseated by Republicans and the former president now has a 0.1 point lead.

Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania have also moved in Trump's favor over the past two weeks, with the former president leading by 0.5 points in Nevada and Pennsylvania and 0.9 points ahead in Michigan, according to the tracker.

In Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, Trump has been in the lead since at least September. In all three federal states it is currently between 0.9 and 1.4 points ahead.

Trump
Former President Donald Trump at the Univision Town Hall, Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2024, in Doral, Florida. An Electoral College map shows Trump will win all seven battleground states.

Alex Brandon/AP

The former president's lead in the battleground states means the pollster now predicts the former president will win the election with 312 Electoral College votes to Harris' 226 votes.

“President Trump is running with Kamala Harris, and voters know that America can no longer survive under Kamala's destructive policies of rising inflation, an out-of-control border and rampant crime that terrorizes every community,” said Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung Newsweek.

Newsweek the Harris campaign has reached out for comment.

The vice president is still projected to win in Nebraska's second district, where she has a 9-point lead. Nebraska is one of two states (including Maine) that does not use the winner-take-all system in allocating its five Electoral College votes. The winner of the statewide popular vote is awarded two votes, while the winner in each of Nebraska's three congressional districts is awarded one vote.

It comes amid a positive month for Trump in the polls. A recent Fox News poll conducted Oct. 11-14 among 1,110 registered voters and 870 likely voters showed Trump leading Harris by two points, with Trump at 50 percent and Harris at 48 percent. This represented a 4-point turnaround from September, when Harris was ahead by 2 points.

Similarly, an ActiVote poll from early October showed Trump with a 1.2-point lead nationally, a reversal from September when Harris had a 5.4-point lead.

Trump has also gained ground in important swing states. An Oct. 9 Fabrizio/McLaughlin poll showed the former president leading in each of the seven swing states. Meanwhile, a Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll conducted between Oct. 12 and Oct. 14 showed Harris losing her lead in two swing states — Michigan and Nevada — which are now tied. Trump increased his lead in Florida from 4 to 6 points and in Arizona from 1 to 2 points in the same poll. However, in Georgia and Pennsylvania, the former president has lost the 1- and 2-point leads he held in an earlier poll by Redfield and Wilton Strategies.

However, FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver's forecast still show Harris ahead and expected to win in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada, which would give her more than 270 Electoral College votes needed to win.

Harris needs 44 electoral votes from battleground states to secure victory, while Trump needs 51.

Still, FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker shows Harris' vote share declining in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump's vote share has increased slightly in Arizona and Georgia since early October. In North Carolina, Trump's lead narrowed from 0.7 to 0.5 points.

In a recent newsletter, Silver described the race as “razor-thin” and wrote, “Recent polls show it is virtually a tie in key Midwestern battlegrounds, making it a true 50/50 contest.”

According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris leads Trump by 2.4 points nationally, while Silver's tracker has her ahead by 2.5 points.

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