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The 2024 electoral map doesn't just resemble Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016. It's almost identical


The 2024 electoral map doesn't just resemble Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016. It's almost identical

In the end, Donald Trump's 2024 election victory was decided by Wisconsin, just as it was in the presidential race against Hillary Clinton eight years ago.

Clinton was the favorite to win the White House in 2016 and her defeat sent shockwaves across the country and around the world.

This year's results and how election night played out aren't just similar to the 2016 race – it was almost identical.

Republican pollster Frank Luntz said just six days ago that the 2024 presidential election reminded him “so much of 2016.”

“I think there are a lot of similarities between this campaign and that campaign right now,” Luntz told CNN's Sara Sidner. “The divisions in the country were significant at the time, people didn’t think Trump had a chance at the time. He just kept growing.”

In 2016, it was a landslide for Trump, who won the Electoral College with 304 votes compared to 227 for Clinton. Looking at the map of the US for the 2024 election, it stands at 295 for Trump and 226 for Vice President Kamala Harris – with Nevada and Arizona still to be called.

The 2024 map — minus the states yet to be named — looks nearly identical to the 2016 version, except for a split vote in Nebraska in 2024.

The 2024 election results are similar to Donald Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 - with a nearly identical electoral map
The 2024 election results are similar to Donald Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 – with a nearly identical electoral map (Getty)

Trump won the battleground states of Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in both 2016 and 2024. These were states that Joe Biden captured in 2020 to secure his victory.

The similarities between Clinton and Harris' 2024 campaigns extend beyond just the map.

Eight years ago, Clinton appeared to be energized after a star-studded Election Day rally in North Carolina that featured performances by Bon Jovi and Lady Gaga. It mirrored Harris' scenes in Philadelphia, again supported by Gaga, Oprah Winfrey and Katy Perry.

Election night 2024 began the same way it did eight years ago. Around 7 p.m. on Election Day, Kentucky and Indiana were calling for Trump, while Vermont was calling for Harris. The same states and the same results were called first in the 2016 race.

It didn't take long for the red mirage to become clear in both races.

JD Vance's home state of Ohio – which was then a swing state – was called for Trump this year at about the same time it went red eight years ago, at 10:35 p.m. Clinton had made progress in the final weeks of the race in the Buckeye State, but it wasn't enough.

Harris was never planned to take Ohio, but after the furor over unfounded Republican rumors that Haitian migrants were “eating other people's pets,” there may have been hopes that it could have helped Democrats. That wasn't the case.

At 11 p.m. in 2016, Trump's path to the White House was much clearer than the Democrats', as it was last night.

The electoral college in the 2016 presidential election, in which Trump defeated Clinton and secured entry into the White House
The electoral college in the 2016 presidential election, in which Trump defeated Clinton and secured entry into the White House (Data Wrapper/Independent)

At 10:50 p.m. in 2016, Trump received 29 electoral votes by surprisingly winning the then-swing state of Florida. This year, Trump won the Sunshine State on Tuesday evening at 8 p.m.

The battleground state of Pennsylvania, which polls showed was within Harris' reach, was called for Trump at 1:35 a.m. in 2016. This monumental call came just after 2 a.m. on Wednesday this year.

Not long after, Clinton campaign manager John Podesta urged supporters to “get the votes counted” and “bring this home.” Harris campaign chairwoman Jen O'Malley felt the need to send an upbeat memo between 10 and 11 p.m. to calm nerves.

Trump claims victory in the 2024 presidential election after Pennsylvania was decided in his favor. The entire race is now decided in his favor
Trump claims victory in the 2024 presidential election after Pennsylvania was decided in his favor. The entire race is now decided in his favor (REUTERS)

“As we continue to see data trickle in from the Sun Belt states, we have always known that our clearest path to 270 electoral votes is through the Blue Wall states,” O'Malley said. “And we feel good about what we see.”

At the Harris watch party at Howard University in Washington DC on Tuesday evening, senior campaign adviser Cedric Richmond said the vice president would not speak when the results were announced.

“This has bad echoes of the Javits Center in New York in 2016, where Hillary Clinton did not address her supporters and only sent her chief of staff to tell everyone to go home,” said journalist Jon Sopel The Independentthe columnist said before the result was confirmed. “Not a good look.”

Supporters of the Harris Watch Party at Howard University, Washington DC, looked dejected as Harris' results came in - and shared a similar view of Clinton's ticket
Supporters of the Harris Watch Party at Howard University, Washington DC, looked dejected as Harris' results came in – and shared a similar view of Clinton's ticket (AP)

Eight years ago, at 2:29 a.m., the state of Wisconsin was called for Trump and it was all over. As it was at 5:30 a.m. Tuesday, when he received the state's 10 electoral votes, surpassing the 270 mark.

At 2:50 a.m., Clinton had called Trump to formally declare victory and congratulate him, and shortly thereafter he took the stage in New York to announce the victory. Harris didn't relent until after that year, but Trump wasted no time, taking a victory lap around 3 a.m

There were jubilant scenes at Trump's headquarters in West Palm Beach in the early hours of Wednesday morning as the Republican stood on stage and claimed victory even before the Wisconsin result was known.

While the Trump campaign relives the joy of eight years ago, the course of the night will undoubtedly bring back difficult memories for Clinton and the Democrats.

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