As I have in the past, below are the keys and my prediction for how the Pittsburgh Steelers will win (or lose) tonight's game. Three things have to happen for them to end up on the right side of the scoreboard, and vice versa, in their first home game in Week 3 against the Los Angeles Chargers.

My prediction for the Steelers is below.

The Steelers will win if …

1. Pat Freiermuth is loose at the seam

After a quiet two weeks in which the passing attack was more focused on the sideline than the actual game, Freiermuth could be ready for a big play. The Chargers' defensive structure and lack of a high-profile free safety make the middle of the field a friendlier target. At some point, Pittsburgh will have to test that. Although George Pickens has shown he can compete, other players will have to step in.

2. Broderick Jones recovers

As much bad feeling as there is currently around Broderick Jones, there is no time to wallow in it. He is the starting right tackle now and for the foreseeable future after rookie Troy Fautanu landed on the injured list with a knee injury. Jones has talent. And he has shown that he can play well. He faces a tough opponent against Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, but a clear game from Jones will ease the pain of Fautanu's absence and remind everyone not to throw in the towel on Jones.

3. Justin Herbert becomes easy prey

While Herbert will likely play, his effectiveness is a legitimate question. Is this a Kirk Cousins-like situation, where the quarterback can't move and the offense has to change its personality by using more pistols and shotguns (to be fair, the Chargers have already used pistols) to mitigate Herbert's severe ankle sprain?

Will he be able to move out of the pocket and elude TJ Watt and Co.? The last time the Steelers faced Herbert, his legs were an X-factor. That could change when he's on one leg.

The Steelers will lose if …

1. JK Dobbins lets Pittsburgh burn again

Dobbins has been a tough nut to crack for Pittsburgh. Despite playing rarely against the Steelers due to injuries, he averaged nearly seven yards per carry in the two games he played against them. That includes a game against the team in 2022 with 15 carries, 120 yards and a touchdown.

Pittsburgh's run defense and front seven are tough and resilient, but Dobbins is one attempt away from making a big run. And he's a red-hot runner, rushing for over 130 yards in each of his two weeks of the season.

2. O-Line can’t handle stunts

No offensive game plan calls for third and long, but that's something you'll want to avoid especially against the Chargers. That's when Bosa and Mack can pin their ears and go for it. And the scheme gets more chaotic when three linemen line up on one side and then spin and stunt. Pittsburgh benefits from being at home, but that only makes the task slightly easier. The Chargers could test the Steelers' ever-changing front five. Justin Fields can't outrun everyone.

3. The Chargers’ offense shows enough depth

Pittsburgh does a good job of taking away your fastball. The guys with the best skills. Atlanta's Kyle Pitts and Drake London and Denver's Courtland Sutton, all with muffled impact. A Pitts touchdown was all those guys managed. Where the Steelers get into trouble is the teams that have depth and can win with their third/fourth options.

The Chargers aren't an incredibly strong team at the skill positions, but they have a good scheme. A guy like Ladd McConkey could pose a problem in the slot, something the Steelers haven't faced in the first two weeks of the year. Rookie CB Beanie Bishop Jr. really hasn't been tested. This week, that could change.

forecast

Chargers: 20
Steelers: 14

Steelers season prediction record

2:0