South Korea is renewing its threat to send weapons to Ukraine just days after releasing intelligence that North Korea plans to deploy large troop numbers to support the Russian invasion.

South Korea will consider sending Ukraine “weapons for defense and offense,” according to Yonhap news agency, which quoted an unnamed senior presidential official on Tuesday.

Yonhap also reported that Seoul may send military and intelligence personnel to Ukraine to analyze North Korean battlefield tactics and help interrogate captured North Koreans.

In a statement, South Korea's National Security Council called for the “immediate withdrawal” of North Korean troops from Russia and promised unspecified “gradual countermeasures.”

The warning is one of Seoul's strongest warnings ever as concerns grow over North Korea's increasing involvement in the Ukraine conflict.

Last week, South Korean intelligence said North Korea had already sent about 1,500 special forces to Russia to join the war in Ukraine and planned to deploy a total of 12,000 elite troops.

U.S. and NATO officials said they could not confirm North Korea's troop buildup but condemned military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, including Pyongyang's supply of artillery and missiles for use in Ukraine.

Western countries have long called on South Korea, one of the world's largest arms exporters, to arm Ukraine directly. South Korea resisted, fearing it could prompt Russia to expand its military ties with North Korea, which is seeking advanced weapons for Seoul.

Strategic changes

But some analysts believe South Korea's strategic calculations could change as ties between North Korea and Russia grow despite Seoul's caution.

Earlier this year, North Korea and Russia restored a Cold War-era mutual defense treaty, opening the door to much broader military cooperation.

By sending troops to Ukraine, North Korea's military could gain valuable battlefield experience, secure financial support to shore up the country's struggling economy and lay the groundwork for future joint exercises with Russia, analysts said.

There are also fears in Seoul that Pyongyang is looking to Moscow for advanced military technology, possibly including help with its nuclear, missile or satellite programs.

These concerns likely explain South Korea's strong reaction to North Korea's involvement in Ukraine, said Mason Richey, a professor at the Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul.

“To me, the simplest explanation is that South Korea believes that North Korea is getting something sufficiently valuable for this troop deployment that it makes sense to take some risk to impose costs on Russia,” Richey said.

South Korea's calculations

A decision to arm Ukraine could also feed into South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's foreign policy mantra of “peace through strength,” said Ben Engel, who teaches political science and international relations at Dankook University outside Seoul.

“They won't look very strong unless they react in some way. And sending weapons to Ukraine is something they are already de facto doing,” Engel said. “So it seems like an easy step to show strength if you do it explicitly.”

South Korea has so far only supplied weapons to third parties such as the United States and Poland, which supply weapons directly to Ukraine.

Officials often defend this stance by citing national laws that restrict arms exports to active conflict areas, although Yoon also suggested that these barriers could be circumvented.

One way for Yoon to get around such restrictions would be to exploit a legal loophole intended to allow aid to developing countries, according to South Korean lawmaker Kim Joon-hyung.

Kim, who opposes South Korea's involvement in the Ukraine war, said he soon plans to introduce legislation that would limit such a move.

Some opinion polls suggest that most South Koreans oppose arming Ukraine, although the issue has not been the subject of intense public debate.

Some analysts suspect that South Korea may also be weighing the outcome of the upcoming U.S. election before taking decisive steps – especially as former President Donald Trump indicated he would reduce support for Ukraine.

“It makes little sense to respond positively to appeals made by (U.S. President Joe) Biden and NATO six months ago if Trump wins,” said Jeffrey Robertson, a professor of diplomacy at Yonsei University in Seoul.

Long-term postponement

Beyond political considerations such as the U.S. election, some experts warn that the deepening strategic alignment between North Korea and Russia poses long-term challenges that threaten South Korea's security.

Hyun Seung-soo, a researcher specializing in Russia at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said relations between North Korea and Russia are evolving beyond short-term military cooperation.

“People tend to think that North Korea just sends a few soldiers, receives economic support and receives minor military technologies in return. But Kim Jong Un’s perspective is much broader,” Hyun said.

“For North Korea, fighting in Russia is not just about helping Russia — it is seen as participating in North Korea’s own holy war against the United States,” he said. “Their mindset might be that they live, fight and die together with Russia.”

This broader realignment could have serious consequences for South Korea, Hyun warned.

“Although the number of troops deployed may be small, the impact of such a deployment is significant,” Hyun said. “It is an action by Russia and North Korea that could change the global political landscape.”