• In response to North Korea's support for Russia, South Korea is threatening to arm Ukraine.
• Its weapons stockpile could make a big difference for Ukraine.
• But South Korea remains cautious about getting involved in the Ukraine war.

In response to increasing support for the Russian invasion from its long-time enemy North Korea, South Korea threatened to supply weapons and resources to Ukraine.

If it continues, it could prove to be a powerful ally.

After an emergency meeting of the National Security Council this week, senior South Korean officials condemned North Korea for sending troops to Russia.

Their mission was not explicitly stated, but Ukraine has stated that they are there to join the Russian invasion.

Officials also told news outlets that Seoul could send weapons to Ukraine as part of a series of gradual countermeasures.

South Korea's Yonhap News Agency on Tuesday quoted security officials as saying Seoul could even send military personnel to Ukraine to monitor North Korea's presence in the conflict.

The Russian Foreign Ministry threatened South Korea with “security consequences” if it interfered, Yonhap reported.

A fearsome arsenal

Analysts say Russia has good reasons for concern.

“South Korean weapons could potentially make a significant difference in both Ukraine's defensive and offensive capabilities,” Jeremy Chan, China and Northeast Asia analyst at Eurasia Group, told Business Insider.

South Korea, a U.S. ally, has built up an impressive weapons arsenal in its decades-long conflict with North Korea.

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These include anti-aircraft and missile defense systems that could help Ukraine defend its cities and infrastructure from Russian attacks, Chan said.

There are also “world-class” K9 howitzers, K2 tanks and multiple rocket launcher systems, Chan said.

Seoul has already supported the delivery of urgently needed 155 mm shells to Ukraine, albeit only temporarily.

South Korea sent ammunition to Western allies such as the United States and Poland, giving them the opportunity to send their own ammunition to Ukraine.

Ellen Kim, a Korea expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC, told BI that South Korea's support to Kiev could include providing information about North Korean weapons and tactics.

Kim also said that “South Korea may support a psychological warfare campaign against North Korean soldiers who may not want to participate in the war.”

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Wednesday there was “evidence” that North Korean troops were already training in Russia and warned against joining the fight.

Military experts in the country told BI that strict measures would be imposed on soldiers sent there to prevent them from deserting.

South Korea hesitates

However, there are significant obstacles to South Korea arming Ukraine. This applies not least to South Korea's long-standing ban on sending military aid to war-torn countries abroad.

Chan said South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol was unpopular at home and would have difficulty repealing the law on the center-left-dominated South Korean National Assembly.

“North Korea’s actions would have to pose a clearer and more immediate threat to South Korea’s national security before we would expect the National Assembly to approve arms exports to Ukraine,” he said.

Another factor cited by Chan and Kim was South Korea's desire not to completely destroy its ties with Russia, despite growing fears that the Kremlin would strengthen North Korea and embolden its leader Kim Jong Un.

In exchange for North Korean shells and military support in Ukraine, the Kremlin has sought to prevent United Nations inspections of North Korea's nuclear program and may be willing to provide it with sophisticated military technology.

Entrapment dilemma

Chan said Yoon was considering how best to deter Russia.

“Seoul believes that the threat of arms supplies gives it greater influence over Moscow than it would have if South Korea directly supplied arms,” he said.

Future diplomatic and trade ties are another reason South Korea is hesitant to act — as well as the prospect of being drawn further into the Ukraine war than it intends.

“There is a possibility that South Korea could fire on Russians and/or North Koreans, which would lead to an internationalization and expansion of the war,” Sean McFate, a strategy professor at Georgetown University, told BI.

“In the worst case scenario, there will be a nuclear war on the Korean peninsula, drawing the United States and China into an armed conflict.”

But the escalating alliance between Russia and North Korea could soon reach a point where South Korea sees a need for action.

Because of Russia's increasing dependence on North Korea, Kim Jong Un is in a strong position to negotiate advanced technology in return.

Such an exchange, Chan said, could be the red line that forces South Korea to commit to the war in Ukraine and send weapons.

Although Ukraine has the military power to harm Russia, it is an escalation that carries real risks.

As Kim, the CSIS analyst, put it: “North Korea’s involvement dramatically increases the risk that South Korea will be drawn into the war.”