See projected path, spaghetti models

Editor's note: This story was published Wednesday morning. Click here to follow the latest developments on Hurricane Kirk.

Although Hurricane Kirk is the only named storm currently spinning far out in the Atlantic Ocean, forecasters continue to monitor that a disturbance could develop closer to home in the Caribbean Sea next week.

Hurricane Kirk is “strengthening and is expected to become larger,” the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday, adding that “Kirk is expected to become a large and powerful hurricane.” However, all current forecast models show that the system is weakening North and curving into the middle of the Atlantic, far from the US coast.

The hurricane center said Wednesday afternoon that Kirk was about 1,330 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph and stronger gusts and was expected to move northwest over the next few days.

“Additional strengthening is forecast over the next few days, and Kirk is expected to become a major hurricane by Thursday,” the NHC said in a statement Wednesday morning.

Although Kirk is turning north and staying over the open Atlantic, the major hurricane's long-lasting waves could reach as far as the U.S. East Coast – from the mid-Atlantic to coastal areas in the Northeast – early to mid-next week, meteorologist Michael Lowry said, a week Hurricane specialist at WPLG Local 10 in Miami told USA TODAY on Tuesday.

Hurricane forecast for October: Prepare for the “return of major hurricanes.”

Hurricane Kirk Path Tracker

Hurricane Kirk Spaghetti Models

The system could threaten Florida next week

The NHC also said Wednesday morning that it was keeping an eye on a “broad low pressure area” that is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern Caribbean Sea to the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Meteorologists said environmental conditions “could support gradual development of this system” and that a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the system moves fully into the Gulf of Mexico.

“Stakeholders along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system,” the NHC said Wednesday morning.

“It's really looking like a threat of heavy rain and possibly a wind and storm surge threat for Florida later next week,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Bernie Rayno.

A tropical depression forms in the Atlantic

Additionally, a system in the eastern tropical Atlantic strengthened into Tropical Depression Thirteen on Monday. said the NHC.

The low pressure system was located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday afternoon, and the hurricane center said environmental conditions appeared conducive to further development of this system.

“Gradual strengthening is forecast and the depression could become a tropical storm by this evening,” the NHC said. If it becomes a tropical storm, it would be named Leslie.

Atlantic Storm Tracker

Get ready for the “return of major hurricanes” in October

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season entered its fifth month on Tuesday, and experts are once again taking stock of a deadly and puzzling season.

The year began with dire predictions of a hyperactive season, followed by the explosive and record-breaking landing of Beryl in early July. Then there was a strange mismatch between activity in the Pacific and Atlantic, and a subsequent lull in the middle of the season.

But now that Hurricane Helene hit the Southeast last week in a deadly and devastating way, any hope of a calm hurricane season for the U.S. has been dashed.

Unfortunately, there is still much of the season ahead of us, and “October is historically an active month, particularly in the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico and off the southeast coast of the U.S.,” said Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School.

“I would say that Helene has no real impact on the forecast for the rest of the season, but right now large-scale conditions are extremely conducive to tropical cyclone formation in the eastern Atlantic and we are seeing storms benefiting from these conditions,” said Phil Klotzbach, a senior researcher at Colorado State University, “We just released our latest two-week forecast and are anticipating a very busy two weeks due to Kirk, Invest 91L (the wave behind Kirk) and possibly a system in the Northwest Caribbean/. Gulf region.”

Taking the storm names that have been retired since 1953 as a proxy for storms that made landfall and had a major impact, September has the most names retired, with 43, McNoldy said. August and October are essentially tied at 21 and 20, and only seven storm names were removed from the November storms.

But it's also worth noting that October and November combined have more retired storm names than June, July and August combined, he said. “That is why we must continue to pay attention to the risk of tropical cyclones as the hurricane season continues.”

It's also important to remember that it doesn't take a strong hurricane to cause major damage, McNoldy said. “A slow-moving, disorganized disturbance that may not quite become a tropical storm can dump several meters of rain over an area and trigger terrible flash flooding,” he said. “The threat of rainfall from tropical systems has historically taken a backseat in people’s minds to the threat of wind, even though it is deadlier.”

(This story has been updated to add new information.)

Gabe Hauari is a nationally featured news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at [email protected].