See latest way, spaghetti models for Storm

According to the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Rafael strengthened to a Category 3 storm as it approached the west coast of Cuba.

Rafael was about 85 miles south of Havana, Cuba, on Wednesday afternoon, the NHC said. The storm is moving toward the northwest, and a “general northwestward movement” is expected over the next day or two, followed by a west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico.

“According to forecasts, Rafael is expected to make landfall in western Cuba this afternoon,” the NHC said in its statement Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET. “Rafael is expected to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this evening.”

Hurricane forecasters say Rafael is currently experiencing maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph with stronger gusts, and further strengthening is likely before the storm hits Cuba this afternoon. The hurricane is expected to weaken over Cuba but is expected to become a hurricane in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Rafael flew west of Jamaica on Tuesday afternoon, where authorities opened four emergency shelters but reported no deaths or injuries despite heavy rain.

Heavy rainfall is expected to affect areas of the western Caribbean, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands into western Cuba, through early Thursday, according to the NHC. Rainfall totals between 4 and 8 inches are expected in western Cuba, with isolated higher totals of up to 12 inches in higher areas.

The hurricane center said storm surge could raise water levels up to 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels in areas with onshore winds along Cuba's southern coast, including the Isle of Youth.

“The combination of storm surge and high tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be inundated by rising water moving inland from the coast,” the NHC said Wednesday afternoon.

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There could be impacts in the Florida Keys starting Wednesday

The hurricane center said hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth through Wednesday evening, and tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and central Florida Keys Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are also expected for the lower and central Florida Keys, with some tornadoes also possible in the area and in the far southwest mainland of Florida.

What about the Gulf Coast?

Given the ongoing uncertainty over the long-term forecast, the NHC said it is too early to determine what impact, if any, Rafael could have on parts of the northern Gulf Coast. The waves are expected to spread across much of the Gulf by the end of the week.

Forecasts show the storm could make landfall anywhere from the Texas coast to the Florida Panhandle over the weekend, AccuWeather said. The highest chance of it making landfall there is as a tropical storm along the coast of central Louisiana, according to AccuWeather. Other possible scenarios include the storm turning west and moving over the west coast of Mexico.

The good news: Drier air and stronger vertical wind shear in the Gulf are expected to weaken the hurricane until it approaches the U.S. mainland. “This will not be a situation where there is an intensifying major hurricane making landfall in the U.S., but rather somewhat less severe wind intensity,” AccuWeather's forecast said.

Hurricane Rafael Path Tracker

This forecast track shows the most likely direction of the storm center. It does not show the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is expected to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

Hurricane Rafael spaghetti models

The figures cover a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center only uses the four or five best-performing models in its forecasts.

Gabe Hauari is a nationally featured news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at [email protected].

There could be impacts in the Florida Keys starting Wednesday

What about the Gulf Coast?

Hurricane Rafael Path Tracker

Hurricane Rafael spaghetti models

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