What effect does Trump have on the electric vehicle market? Depends: Newcomers like Rivian and Lucid are potentially at risk, while Tesla has the scale, profitability and Trump connection to make it work, despite big changes that are sure to come. Here's the rundown of how a second Trump term could play out among automakers:

Yesterday's market gives us a quick look at how things could play out in the electric vehicle industry – with Tesla being an outlier, of course, as Elon Musk has campaigned heavily for Trump in key swing states and is expected to win significantly with his ties to the future president. Tesla shares rose 15%. Meanwhile, EV startups Rivian and Lucid saw shares fall 5.3% and 8.3%, respectively, yesterday.

“We see RIVN and LCID challenged, which is largely reflected in the shares,” BofA Securities analyst John Murphy told CNBC. “We do not expect any significant issues for TSLA as the company has already achieved profitability and will continue to introduce more entry-level products that may be attractive to the general public.”

Trump, who has repeatedly denigrated electric cars, has said he would move quickly to repeal the Environmental Protection Agency and change or eliminate vehicle emissions standards. He also said vehicles made in Mexico would be subject to a tariff of up to 200%, and vehicles from China, Europe and elsewhere would likely face higher tariffs.

The future president could also eliminate many electric vehicle incentives, including purchase rebates and tax incentives that are part of Biden's Inflation Reduction Act. However, the IRA has seen billions of dollars in investments in electric vehicle production in red states like South Carolina, Ohio and Georgia, so it's unlikely it will all go away.

Rivian and Lucid stocks are plummeting

Wedbush analysts say that, of course, all these bad rumors won't be good for EV startups like Lucid and Rivian. “We believe a Trump presidency would be negative for the EV industry overall as EV rebates/tax incentives are likely to be eliminated,” Wedbush analysts said, as reported by CNBC.

Following yesterday's election news, Tesla, Lucid, Rivian and electric vehicle battery maker LG have all said they are willing to work with Trump to ensure electric vehicle technology continues to advance, Reuters reports – but that doesn't mean it It's clear that it will work. Of course, Musk's role in all of this and his influence on Trump remains to be clarified, as Tesla relies heavily on China as a manufacturing base and important market.

And the winners are… the ICE manufacturers GM, Ford and Stellantis

Legacy automakers, particularly the Big Three in Detroit — General Motors, Ford and Chrysler parent Stellantis — will likely be the biggest “winners” from Trump’s victory, meaning they won’t decarbonize their portfolios and transition to electric vehicles at a specific pace must, reports Reuters. Yesterday, shares of GM and Ford closed up 2.5% and 5.6%, respectively.

In other plans, Trump also wants to repeal California's ability to set its own vehicle emissions rules and requirements for BEV sales – he had already done so in 2019, but Biden reinstated it. The state's current requirements, the 2022 Advanced Clean Cars II regulation, require 35% of model year 2026 vehicles to be zero-emission vehicles. The California Air Resources Board has said that 12 states and Washington, D.C. have all adopted the rules, while half of them begin with the 2027 model year. CARB regulations require that 100% of new vehicle sales in California be zero-emission models by 2035.

The American Trucking Association, the trucking industry's largest national trade group, jumped in, calling on Trump to weaken the EPA's tailpipe emissions targets with a new set of standards that are “technologically achievable and reflect the operational realities of our important industry.” “Reuters wrote.

Auto executives also expect Trump to roll back or freeze Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards for model years during his term.

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