Republicans gained more seats in the Vermont Legislature on Tuesday than they have in more than a decade, ousting the Democratic/Progressive supermajority that Gov. Phil Scott blames for an “affordability crisis.”

Republicans' best hope of overturning Democrats' veto-proof majority lay in the Senate, where a deep slate of capable candidates offered candidates opportunities in Caledonia County, Orleans County, Grand Isle County and even deep blue Chittenden.

According to unofficial results from the secretary of state's office, they have claimed victories in all of those races and were able to pull off surprise victories late Tuesday in Addison and Orange counties as well.

That means Republicans will have at least 11 members in the state Senate next year — more than they have had since 2002 and enough to prevent Democrats from unilaterally overriding any vetoes that Republican Gov. Phil Scott might issue.

Republican officials said late Tuesday that they expected the party to gain 17 seats in the House, also losing Democrats' veto-proof majority in that chamber.

In a victory speech on election night, Scott said the red wave, driven largely by voter discontent over rising property taxes, would force Democrats to a negotiating table that they have been able to leave without consequences for the past four years.

“They voted for balance and they voted for moderation,” Scott said. “They told us that they cannot afford the direction we have taken and that they want the legislature to set clear priorities. Focus on the needs of all working families, small business owners in communities large and small.”

Senate President Pro Tem Phil Baruth attended a somber Vermont Democratic Party election night event in South Burlington. He said in an interview that his party had to reckon with the results.

“You listen to the voters. Tonight there was a clear result that wasn't in our favor, so we have to listen to that. We can’t pretend it didn’t happen,” Baruth said. “For me the key is the reality that voters were dissatisfied. I think the tax issue and education funding were a big part of it, so we need to sit down with the new Republican caucus and work together on education funding.”

Scott's influence

Scott, who polls consistently show is the most popular governor in the United States, faced little re-election challenge this year. But he is fighting long and hard to return to partisan balance in a Democratic-controlled Legislature that uses its numbers to push through policies that Scott opposes. Those measures include a payroll tax to fund child care subsidies and energy measures intended to accelerate the state's transition away from fossil fuels.

Scott tried to draw voters' attention to the alleged dangers of the Democratic supermajority in his State of the State address in January.

“I know you have a supermajority,” Scott told lawmakers. “You have proven that the final budget and the growing burden of taxes, fees and other policy-related costs are in your hands.”

Since then, he has used some of his weekly media briefings to convince the electorate that his worst fears have come true. In May, he expressed deep concerns as lawmakers prepared to consider his objections with bills on property taxes and the renewable energy standard.

“Unfortunately, because of the lack of balance in the Legislature, (Democrats) don’t want to hear about the consequences, limitations or obstacles when it comes to their initiatives,” Scott said in May.

After Democrats broke a state record in June by overriding six gubernatorial vetoes in a single day, Scott's rhetoric darkened.

“It seems like they’re learning well from DC,” Scott said. “DC is dysfunctional. It's all about partisan politics, it's about influencing who gets what and making sure you have the majority. And they learned well. The same thing is unfolding here in Vermont.”

That message resonated with many voters on Tuesday. Diane Bapp lives in Barton Town and arrived at her polling station at Lake Region Union High School with her ballot in hand. When asked what motivated her to vote, she only had a one-word answer.

“Taxes,” Bapp said.

The 68-year-old, who has lived in Barton Town all her life, said she was worried young families were leaving the area due to the high cost of living.

“I’m sorry that the other generation is coming because it will be hell for them,” Bapp said.

And she said her vote for Orleans County Republican Senate candidate Samuel Douglass was her attempt to help solve the problem.

“He will bring everything down,” she said.

Democratic House Speaker defends record

House Speaker Jill Krowinski told Vermont Public last week that the supermajority is not the bogeyman Scott made it out to be.

“I think what Vermonters want to see is us working across party lines to get things done,” she said.

She said House members heard the same concerns from their constituents as the governor: affordable housing, property taxes, health care and flood recovery. She said solving the problem of property taxes, which have risen an average of 14% this year, requires a new kind of cooperation between the legislative and executive branches.

“I think leading up to this legislative session, in the period between the election and our return to the building, it's going to be really important for us to communicate early on how we can work together to address these big challenges that lie ahead solve. ” she said. “We just have to. There's too much at stake. We need to take action this session, and we need to do it together.”

Krowinski also defended Democratic policies that have led to increased taxes in Vermont. The payroll tax that Scott railed against so strongly has led to 1,000 new child care spaces, 39 new daycare centers and more than 250 new jobs in the industry, according to Krowinski.

“I hear about it when I knock on doors and people deeply appreciate it and talk about how it changed their lives,” she said. “I think there’s a misunderstanding across the state about the work we’ve done, and some of that comes from the governor.”

Funded by the Governor

Scott dug deep into his own campaign coffers this campaign to offset the institutional advantage that Democrats had over Republicans for more than a decade.

The Vermont Democratic Party's fundraising capabilities have created an organizational framework that employs five full-time staff to handle behind-the-scenes tasks such as candidate recruiting, on-the-ground organizing and voter targeting that are critical in House races Meaning are and Senate.

Jim Dandeneau, executive director of the VDP, said the party's budget for this year alone is about $700,000. Democrats have also received support from super PACs such as the Child Care Victory Fund and the Vermont Conservation Voters Action Fund, the latter of which spent nearly $200,000 supporting rejected candidates last month alone.

The Vermont Republican Party state committee, meanwhile, had raised a total of $164,000 for this election cycle as of Nov. 1.

Scott used more than $450,000 from his own campaign account to support dozens of candidates, appearing alongside them on postcards and radio ads he financed.

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