Toronto Maple Leafs @ Minnesota Wild
6:00 p.m. at the Xcel Energy Center
Look at: SNO, FDSNNO, FDSNWI

The Leafs' last game was on November 2nd away against the St. Louis Blues, which Toronto lost 4-2 in regulation time. The Leafs have a record of 6-5-1 with a .542 points percentage.

The Minnesota Wild last played at home against the Tampa Bay Lightning on November 1st. The Wild went 5-3 in regulation time and their current league record is 7-1-2 with a .800 points percentage.

Them

The Minnesota Wild have always been reliably dull, boring, uneventful, mediocre and boring. If that changes, I'm not sure I can handle it.

The Wild have had pretty good five-on-five percentages so far this year, although with some strange weightings to shot quality. For them, it's all about limiting shots against opponents and giving them special quality, which makes them the best team according to Expected Goals Against in the NHL. Oh, and there are also goals conceded in five-on-five games. Overall, they are the fourth best at limiting the hit rate.

At the other end of the ice they are, quite frankly, bad. And yet, Kirill Kaprizov leads the NHL in points, and part of that is due to the power play. Yes, the Wild's power play is better than the Leafs' in every way. Who doesn't own this?

Kaprizov scored six of his 21 points on the power play, so Kaprizov is an offensive force at five-on-five, even though the Wild shoot very little and have worse expected goals goals. He is not just a hot shot, he shoots smartly and narrowly and has always scored more goals than expected in the past. He is an elite talent with a very hot start to the year.

The Wild defensemen don't shoot much, the bottom six don't do much, but in addition to Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek, Matt Boldy and Mats Zuccarello can hurt you.

Filip Gustavsson, who has had excellent periods of play, is equal to Anthony Stolarz in goals above expected goals, a trick that is easier to use with the Wild than with the Leafs.

lines

Dylan Loucks via Daily Faceoff from last practice, subject to change

Kirill Kaprizov – Marco Rossi – Mats Zuccarello
Marcus Johansson – Joel Eriksson Ek – Matt Boldy
Marcus Foligno – Frederick Gaudreau – Ryan Hartman
Jakub Lauko – Marat Khusnutdinov – Yakov Trenin

Jonas Brodin – Jared Spurgeon
Jacob Middleton-Brock Faber
Declan Chisholm-Zach Bogosian

Filip Gustavsson – assumed starter
Marc-André Fleury

Us

The Leafs will likely trade some players for this game since it is a back-to-back game. I'd put Nick Robertson in the bottom six and try to balance him with some of those more boring lines.

We'll know for sure at game time.

lines

Last game (11/2/2024) via Daily Faceoff and subject to change

Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – Mitch Marner
Max Pacioretty – John Tavares – William Nylander
Bobby McMann – Max Domi – Pontus Holmberg
Steven Lorentz – David Kaempf – Ryan Reaves

Morgan Rielly – Oliver Ekman Larsson
Jake McCabe – Chris Tanev
Simon Benoit – Conor Timmins

Anthony Stolarz – starter
Joe Wool

The game

On paper, this isn't an easy opponent for the Leafs, but neither were the Jets, and Toronto handled them well. They won't get many good chances, so they'll have to play a close 60-minute game and eliminate the Wild's top six.

Part of their problem against the Blues was that while Tavares had some posts, the middle line pair didn't manage their encounters very well. There's no room for that tonight.

Kaprizov is real, but so is Auston Matthews.

Note the start time. The NHL is trying to be the NFL today.