53% have a positive opinion of Harris, 49% positive of Trump

Emerson College Polling's national survey this week found that 49% of voters support Vice President Kamala Harris, while 48% support former President Donald Trump for president in 2024 and two percent are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they are leaning toward, Harris' overall support rises to 50% and Trump's to 49%.

“Women and men voters split almost oppositely: men for Trump, 56% to 42%, and women for Harris, 55% to 41%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Hispanic voters vote for Harris 61% to 35% and black voters vote 81% to 12%, while white voters vote for Trump 60% to 38%.”

A majority of voters (80%) say they decided which candidate to support over a month ago, while 11% made their decision last month, 6% last week and 3% last week have. still haven't decided.

“Voters who made their decision about who to support more than a month ago support Trump by 52% to 48%, while voters who made their decision in the last month or week agree by 60% 36% vote for Harris,” Kimball said. “The three percent of voters who said they could still change their mind are currently for Harris, 48% to 43%.”

On the general congressional ballot, 48% plan to vote for the Democratic nominee while 45% support the Republican nominee. Seven percent are undecided.

Kamala Harris has a 53% positive rating, while 47% have a negative opinion of the vice president. Donald Trump is viewed positively by 49%, while 51% have a negative opinion of the former president.

President Biden has a 42% job approval rating, while 53% disapprove of the president's job and 6% are neutral.

A majority of voters (38%) consider the economy to be the country's most important issue, followed by immigration (16%), threats to democracy (13%), access to abortion (9%), health care (7%). Housing affordability (6%) and crime (4%).

When asked whether the number of migrants seeking refuge in the United States represents a crisis, a problem but not a crisis, or not a problem at all, a majority (54%) say it is a crisis and 37% think it is a problem but not a crisis, and 9% think it is not a problem at all.

When it comes to the federal government's response to this month's hurricanes, 24% rate the response as excellent, 28% as good, 23% as not so good and 25% as poor.

methodology

The Emerson College Polling statewide survey was conducted October 14-16, 2024. The sample of likely voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll's margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. Datasets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration and region based on modeling of likely voters in 2024. Turnout modeling is based on voter registration and election data.

It is important to keep in mind that subsets based on demographic characteristics such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity result in higher credibility intervals when the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the survey's rating range, and at a 95% confidence interval, 1 in 20 times a survey will fall outside the rating range.

Data were collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-Web text, landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) (both lists provided by Aristotle), and an online voter panel provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.

For all questions asked in this survey, including the exact wording, as well as full results, demographics, and crosstabs, see Full Results. This survey was sponsored by Emerson College.

FULL RESULTS