Prediction and best bet for New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State

My best choice
Jacksonville State over 38.5 points (-113 at BetRivers)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
Those midweek games sneak up on you, especially in the first week. Many avid college football bettors won't understand this matchup until a few hours before kickoff on Wednesday night. That's okay, that's what Covers is here for. But in order to help you more efficiently than usual, let us simply rattle off a few facts.

New Mexico State has given up 39.75 points per game to FBS opponents this season, with only Liberty failing to match its team point total. Over the last three games, the Aggies' opponents have outscored their team by an average of 12.2 points per game. The most recent of these, New Mexico, has the second-worst offense in the country in terms of expected points added (EPA) per snap. On a snap-by-snap basis, the Lobos are as bad as an offense can be, including ranking No. 127 in rushing EPA.

New Mexico State's rush defense ranks last in the country in EPA, a high No. 120 when it comes to rushing success rate.

Jacksonville State's offense lives and dies locally, which has led to some early success. The Gamecocks have scored offensively on 44.7% of their rushes, ranking No. 31 in the country, contributing to an acceptable EPA ranking of No. 70. This means that Jacksonville State should be consistently successful from shot to shot against New Mexico State.

But the logic that makes this a must-play bet is actually the Aggies' offense. The state of New Mexico only uses quality drives on 26.2% of its trips. The Aggies ran the ball 35 times and only reached the red zone 12 times. One reason teams like to score so much against New Mexico State is because their offenses run the field so often.

Match game between New Mexico State and Jacksonville State (SGP)

Overall over 38.5 from the Jacksonville State team

Jacksonville State -20.5

Tyler Huff at any time for a touchdown

Tre Stewart can touch down at any time

To reiterate, New Mexico State has only played one game this season, playing Liberty narrowly in what was essentially the closest thing to a Super Bowl on the Aggies' schedule. One would have thought that last week's game against New Mexico would also fit that description given the interstate rivalry, but allowing 50 points invalidates such praise.

All seven of the Lobos' touchdowns came on the ground. Three of Sam Houston State's four touchdowns were rushes. Fresno State at least provided some variety, as only four of its six touchdowns against New Mexico State came on carries.

So it seems pretty easy to trust Jacksonville State's two top scorers to contribute to their totals: quarterback Tyler Huff with five touchdowns this season and running back Tre Stewart with eight.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State odds

Live odds for New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State

New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State opening odds

• Distribution between New Mexico State and Jacksonville State: Jacksonville State -18
• Money line New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State: New Mexico State +800, Jacksonville State -1,400
• New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State Over/Under: 57.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State spread and over/under analysis

• With both teams out for the weekend due to this midweek game, some weak players posted lines on Friday that favored Jacksonville State by just 14.5 points. When the real market opened on Sunday, the value had already risen to -18.
• Within minutes, it rose further to -20.5 on Sunday, where it remained all week.
• The overall score also had an outlook at 54.5 that instilled too much confidence in New Mexico State's defense. Even that forecast number moved, rising to 56.5 on Friday before opening at 57.5 in the broader market on Sunday.
• On Tuesday there was another increase to 58.5, which should only be considered a doubt for the Aggies.

New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State betting trend worth knowing

Four of Jacksonville State's five games this season have exceeded their point total, thanks in no small part to the Gamecocks averaging 4.2 points per quality drive, ranking No. 29 in the country. Find more college football betting trends for New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State.

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