National Hurricane Center observation area in the Caribbean that could become Patty

The Atlantic basin may not go to sleep so easily this year, as a globe-trotting troublemaker and a steamy Caribbean pump energy in the final weeks of hurricane season.

National Hurricane Center meteorologists have been monitoring an area of the southwest Caribbean Sea for possible tropical development since October 26. A tumbling jet stream is expected to bring it to life as a yawning low-pressure area.

From there, a traveling thunderstorm node called the Madden-Julian Oscillation could trigger at least one more named storm in a season that officially ends on November 30. The hurricane center puts the chance of at least one tropical depression forming at 40% in the seven days beginning Wednesday, October 30. The next name on the 2024 hurricane list is Patty.

Normally the tropics come to a standstill in November. Cold fronts burrow into the Gulf of Mexico with blistering winds and dry air, killing anything bubbling in water still warm enough to spawn a storm like an egg in an incubator.

But this year, Caribbean waters are up to 5.4 degrees warmer than normal in some areas, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which circles the globe every 30 to 60 days, is unusually intense, said hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach of from Colorado State University. It boosted Hurricane Beryl to Category 5 in July and gave life to five hurricanes in a 12-day period in late September and early October: Helene, Isaac, Kirk, Leslie and Milton.

“Everyone is nervous,” Klotzbach said of the area the NHC is watching. “And the billion-dollar question is whether it will end up in the U.S., but it's just too early to know. Anything could happen.”

Climatology is on Florida's side.

Only three November hurricanes have struck the Sunshine State since the late 19th century.

Most recently, 2022's raging Hurricane Nicole made landfall near Vero Beach on November 10 as a Category 1 storm. Storm surges up to 1.5 meters high flooded the central and northeastern coast of Florida and destroyed buildings and houses on the beach. However, according to the NHC's post-storm report, no deaths in the U.S. were directly attributed to Nicole.

The National Centers for Environmental Information estimated the damage caused by Nicole at $1 billion.

In 1985, Hurricane Kate made landfall as a Category 2 storm near Mexico Beach in the Panhandle on November 21, just four days before Thanksgiving.

The NHC's report on Kate noted that the atmosphere in mid-November 1985 was behaving more like late September and early October – peak times for hurricane season. As Kate reached the eastern Gulf of Mexico, it was caught by a frontal trough approaching from the west and sent toward Florida.

Kate was responsible for five deaths and forced an estimated 100,000 people from their homes as she approached. Apalachicola's oyster beds have been decimated.

The third November hurricane to hit Florida was the 1935 storm, known as Yankee because of its unusual approach from the north.

Born near Bermuda, Yankee sailed toward the coast of the Carolinas on the underbelly of Bermuda High, but was then caught in the swoop of another clockwise high-pressure system that pushed it toward Miami on November 4 as a Category 2 hurricane .

“We've always said we think this tropical season could continue,” said Alex DaSilva, senior hurricane forecaster at AccuWeather. “I think a hurricane somewhere in the Caribbean is pretty likely to happen.”

He said any potential impact on the United States would not occur until after Election Day on Nov. 5. The seven-day forecast from the National Weather Service in Miami calls for high pressure, bringing mostly clear skies over South Florida at least through Tuesday.

If anything tropical reaches U.S. shores, it wouldn't happen until late next week or the weekend of Nov. 9, DaSilva said.

And he's particularly worried about South Florida. A storm moving into the Gulf of Mexico could be deflected toward the southwest coast by the jet stream, while a system in the far western Atlantic could be pushed toward the southeast coast by high pressure over the East Coast.

“When storms form in the Caribbean in November, they typically move north and out to sea. But of course things aren’t always typical,” DaSilva said.

This hurricane season was unusual: Beryl formed in record time in the early stages of Category 5, a week-long lull in August and early September, followed by a wave of 10 tropical storms or hurricanes until October 20, when tiny Hurricane Oscar made landfall in Cuba .

A total of 15 named storms have formed, including 10 hurricanes. Five hurricanes have made landfall in the United States, including Beryl, Francine, Debby, Helene and Milton. That's one shy of the record six hurricanes that made landfall in 1886 and 1985.

“We should just realize that hurricane season is not over yet,” Klotzbach said. “We are observing the late season in the Caribbean and the conditions there appear to be quite favorable.”

Kimberly Miller is a journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She deals with real estate, weather and the environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate digest. If you have news tips, please send them to [email protected]. Help support our local journalism; Subscribe today.

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