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Nate Silver gives election prediction as favorite to win


Nate Silver gives election prediction as favorite to win

Election expert Nate Silver has issued a new election forecast just hours before polls open, with a new favorite poised to win while the race is still neck and neck.

According to Silver's forecast, Vice President Kamala Harris now has a 50 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, while former President Donald Trump had 49.6 percent. Harris is projected to win 271 votes, while Trump is projected to win 267 votes.

The model shows a 0.3 percent probability of a tie in the Electoral College. In this case, the election would move to the U.S. House of Representatives, where the newly elected members of Congress would have to be sworn in and then vote on who would become president. In that scenario, Trump would likely win, according to Silver.

Newsweek emailed the Harris and Trump campaigns seeking comment.

This came after Silver's Monday forecast showed Trump was the favorite to win the election, with a 50.4 percent chance of winning the Electoral College to Harris' 49.2 percent. The day before, Trump had a 52.6 percent chance of winning, Harris had a 47 percent chance.

At the end of September, Harris was the favorite to win the election, according to Silver's forecast, but in early October the vice president saw her chances slipping as Trump made gains in key battleground states. Since then, the race has been virtually a draw.

“When I say that the odds in this year's presidential race are as close to 50/50 as possible, I'm not exaggerating,” Silver wrote in his last newsletter.

Trump is now projected to win Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada, while Harris is expected to win Michigan and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is virtually tied.

Trump Harris
This combination of file photos shows Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump (left) speaking at a campaign rally in Detroit on October 18, 2024, and Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris (right) speaking at…


AP

Other poll aggregators also show the race is close, but give Harris a slight edge. For example, FiveThirtyEight's forecast shows Harris currently has a 50 percent chance of winning, to Trump's 49 percent, with Harris having 270 Electoral College votes to Trump's 268. The Economist The forecast shows the same prediction.

Meanwhile survey tracker from The New York Times' and the BBC shows that Harris and Trump are within one point of each other, but give Harris the advantage.

This comes after Marist College released its highly anticipated final polls in Midwest states on Friday, which had Harris leading Trump by three points in Michigan, two points in Pennsylvania and two points in Wisconsin, which would probably give her an election victory.

But not all polls were so positive for Harris. An Atlas Intel poll conducted between November 3 and 4 showed Trump leading in all swing states, with the former president leading by as much as five points in Arizona. Meanwhile, an Echelon Insights poll released last week showed Trump with a five-point lead in Pennsylvania, crucial to victory. However, all seven swing states are still within the margin of error and can be won by anyone.

However, FiveThirtyEight warned that while the polls are close, that doesn't necessarily mean the overall result will be close.

“A close race in the polls does not necessarily mean the outcome will be close,” the pollsters wrote on their website.

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