Prediction and best bet for Minnesota vs. Illinois

My best choice
Minnesota -3 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
Minnesota has fallen short of bookmakers' expectations exactly once this season, with a 31-14 loss to 3-point favorite Iowa on Sept. 21. In the Gophers' season opener, they struggled against the spread and lost by two points to North Carolina as, in effect, two-point underdogs.

All that can be gleaned from the two games in between is that Minnesota easily beats the spreads of -26.5 and -16.5 in 48 and 27 point wins, respectively. Beating Rhode Island at the FCS level and outscoring Nevada is preferable to the alternative, but is inherently uninformative.

However, when you look at these box scores, something becomes clear. The Gophers' star running back Darius Taylor wasn't at 100%. He missed the season opener due to injury and completed just 35 carries for a total of 222 yards in the next three games. Add in 13 runs for 36 yards at Michigan, and Taylor's average rush in his first four games was just 5.38 yards.

In the three games since then, including a loss at UCLA, Taylor has hauled in 56 carries for 255 yards, a 4.55 average.

On the surface, this looks like a step backwards. But what stands out is the attempts per game: 18.7 in the last three, compared to just 12 per game in Taylor's first four this season.

It's no coincidence that Minnesota has covered the spread by an average of 12 points over the last three games compared to oddsmakers' expectations. It's a bit under the radar, but PJ Fleck prefers to run the ball, and that should have a negative impact on the Gophers in the quarterback transfer market next offseason.

With Taylor being a healthy ball carrier, Minnesota is doing much better. Meanwhile, Illinois ranks 87th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush against, per cfb graph. Worse, the Illini are giving up on 48% of opposing rushes, No. 126 in the country.

Taylor and the Gophers should control the game on Saturday afternoon, and that alone is reason enough to believe Minnesota will win this Big Ten West matchup by at least a field goal margin.

Minnesota vs. Illinois – Same Game Parlay (SGP)

Minnesota -2.5

Darius Taylor Over 69.5 rushing yards / Darius Taylor any time TD

Under 45.5

Taylor has exceeded that yardage in two of the last three games against USC and Maryland. In EPA per rush against opponents, the Trojans (No. 47 in the country, -0.033 EPA per rush against) and the Terrapins (No. 37, -0.046) are significantly better than Illinois, which is ranked 87th in giving up +0.027 EPA pro rush against.

In other words, Taylor should get plenty of running opportunities because those opportunities will improve Minnesota's standing. It's also worth noting that he has scored in each of the last two games and in five of seven this season.

If Taylor is the lion's share of the Minnesota offense, it will slow this game down. The Gophers are better defensively, an excellent pass defense that is well-suited to weakening Illinois' offensive strength.

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Minnesota vs Illinois odds

Live odds Minnesota vs. Illinois

Minnesota vs. Illinois opening odds

• Distribution between Minnesota and Illinois: Illinois +2.5
• Moneyline Minnesota vs. Illinois: Minnesota -150, Illinois +125
• Minnesota vs. Illinois Over/Under: 45.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Minnesota vs. Illinois distribution and over/under analysis

• The first real lines on Sunday were simply off, favoring Illinois by three points before the market quickly corrected. Why? Likely because the Illini are at home and advanced metrics alone don't fully understand the impact Taylor can have when healthy and are therefore underestimating his impact in recent weeks.
• After the correction, that spread remained at -2.5 towards Minnesota until Monday afternoon and then rose to -3.
• This total initially hit the market at 46.5, but then quickly fell to 45.5 and stayed there throughout the week.
• The fact that the spread changed so much while the total remained stable highlights the fact that the first spread offer was simply wrong.

Things to know about the Minnesota vs. Illinois betting trend

Two of the Golden Gophers' last three games were below their totals, as were three of the Fighting Illini's last four. Find more college football betting trends for Minnesota vs. Illinois.

Information about the game Minnesota vs. Illinois

Minnesota's recent injuries against Illinois

Weather Minnesota vs. Illinois

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