Mets and Braves need weekend sweeps to avoid playing on Monday: Latest NL playoff scenarios

It was still possible Saturday morning that the Mets habit I have to get on a plane Sunday night and fly back to Atlanta on Monday for a makeup doubleheader. But for that to happen, both teams have to win their games on Saturday and Sunday – and then they would still need help.

Before we lay out the possibilities, we're updating the wild card standings after Friday's win by the Braves and losses by the Mets and Diamondbacks left those teams essentially tied at 16 games over .500

Brave – 87-71
Mets — 87-71
Diamondbacks – 88-72

So in most possible scenarios, the Mets and Braves would have to play at least one game on Monday, possibly both, to determine the final two teams in the National League playoff field. But what would have to happen to make these Monday games unnecessary? They are due to just two scenarios:

Braves and Mets both sweep – If the Braves win against Kansas City on Saturday and Sunday and the Mets win in Milwaukee on Saturday and Sunday, that puts pressure on the Diamondbacks. Then Arizona would also have to win each of its last two games, at home against San Diego, to force the Mets and Braves to play Monday.

That’s because the Diamondbacks are holding none of possible tiebreakers with two or three teams. Worst-case scenario, they'll have to finish their regular season in a virtual tie with at least one of the other two teams on Sunday.

Diamondbacks lose two more – Or if the Diamondbacks lose to San Diego on both Saturday and Sunday, both the Mets and Braves would need to win at least once to effectively eliminate Arizona.

If it continues like this, the table would look like this:

Brave – 88-72
Mets — 88-72
Diamondbacks – 88-74

If that were the case, Arizona would not “mathematically” be eliminated. But the Diamondbacks would be “effectively” eliminated because they would lose by tiebreaker to the Braves and Mets in every two- or three-team matchup.

In that scenario, it's unlikely that MLB would force the Mets and Braves to play on Monday if it were just a matter of seeding. And since the Braves now have the tiebreaker against the Mets, they would be No. 5 and the Mets would be No. 6.

With the other four NL playoff teams determined, the No. 6 seed will face third-seeded Milwaukee in the Wild Card Series, with all three games being played in Milwaukee. The No. 5 seed would have to travel to fourth-seeded San Diego for all three games in the other NL Wild Card Series. (The NL's top seed is still up for grabs between the Dodgers and the Phillies.)

The Mets, in particular, are desperate to avoid the Max Chaos scenario — they have to play a game in Milwaukee on Sunday, two games in Atlanta on Monday and possibly a playoff game in San Diego on Tuesday. That would amount to four games in three days in three time zones.

But is this what lies ahead? Stay tuned – and have your tiebreaker charts ready.

(Photo by Ramón Laureano and Francisco Alvarez: Jason Allen/Associated Press)

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