Maps: Tracking Tropical Storm Rafael

Rafael was a tropical storm in the Caribbean early Tuesday Eastern Time, the National Hurricane Center said in its latest report.

The tropical storm had sustained winds of 45 miles per hour. Follow our reporting here.

All times on the map are Eastern times. From The New York Times

Where will it rain?

Flash flooding may occur well inland and away from the storm center. Even weaker storms can produce excessive rainfall that can flood low-lying areas.

Source: NOAA From The New York Times

What does the storm look like from above?

Satellite images can help determine the strength, size and cohesion of a storm. The stronger a storm becomes, the more likely an eye is to form in the middle. If the eye looks symmetrical, it often means the storm isn't hitting anything that could weaken it.

Rafael is the 17th named storm to form in the Atlantic in 2024.

In late May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted there would be 17 to 25 named storms this year, an above-average number.

This season follows an overly active year with 20 named storms – including an early storm that was later given the official name “Unnamed.” It was the eighth consecutive year that the average was exceeded by 14 named storms. Only one hurricane, Idalia, made landfall in the United States.

Typically, the El Niño pattern that prevailed last season would have suppressed hurricanes and reduced the number of storms in a season. But in 2023, warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic weakened El Niño's usual effect of thwarting storms.

The warm ocean temperatures that fueled last year's season were even warmer at the start of this season, boosting forecasters' confidence that there would be more storms this year. The increased sea surface temperatures could also intensify storms faster than usual.

To make matters worse, last year's El Niño pattern is also weakening, most likely creating a more suitable atmosphere for storms to form and intensify.

Hurricanes require a calm environment to form, and in the Atlantic, a strong El Niño increases wind shear – a change in wind speed and/or direction with height – which affects a storm's ability to merge. Without El Niño this year, clouds are more likely to reach heights high enough to sustain a strong hurricane.

Sources and notes

Tracking map Tracking data comes from the National Hurricane Center. The map shows probabilities of at least 5 percent. The forecast extends for up to five days, with this period beginning up to three hours before the reported time of the storm reaching its final location. No wind speed probability data is available north of 60.25 degrees north latitude.

Wind arrival table The arrival times are generated from a New York Times analysis of National Hurricane Center data. Geographical locations use data from the US Census Bureau and Natural Earth. Time zones are based on Google. The table shows the predicted arrival times of sustained damaging winds of 58 miles per hour or greater for select cities where such winds are likely to reach. When damaging winds reach a location, the chance of them arriving before the “earliest” time is at most 10 percent and the chance of them arriving before the “most likely” time is 50 percent.

Radar map The radar images come from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration through Iowa State University. These mosaics are created by combining individual radar stations that make up the NEXRAD network.

Storm surge map Storm surge data comes from the National Hurricane Center. Forecasts include only the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the United States, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The actual areas that could be flooded may differ from those shown on this map. This map takes into account tides, but not waves or flooding caused by rain. The map also includes tidal areas that are regularly flooded during a typical high tide.

Satellite map Images come from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Japanese Meteorological Agency through the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere.

precipitation Map Data for multi-day forecasts or observed precipitation amounts come from the National Weather Service. The 1-day forecast comes from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Where will it rain?

What does the storm look like from above?

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