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Maps show what awaits you

Maps show what awaits you
Posted on | Posted on angela

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Kentucky's winter could be wetter and milder this year if La Niña conditions persist, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The Climate Prediction Center updated its winter outlook report last month, giving people a glimpse of how cold and wet conditions could be in January, February and March 2025.

In the U.S., there is a 60 percent chance of La Niña occurring from now through November and lasting from January to March 2025. Here's what that means for Kentucky.

What is La Nina?

According to the National Weather Service, La Niña is a natural climate pattern in which ocean seawater cools in the central and eastern Pacific. It typically occurs every 3-5 years and can have significant impacts on the weather, such as worsening the Atlantic hurricane season.

What is the NOAA forecast for Kentucky this winter?

Kentucky is looking a little wetter this year. Meteorologists believe the state is prone to above-average rainfall. Areas west of Jackson and Lexington have a 40-50% chance of above average precipitation. Eastern Kentucky – places like Cumberland, Whitesburg and Pikesville – have a 30-40% chance of seeing more precipitation this winter.

NWS records show the average rainfall total from January to March in Louisville was 11.4 inches of precipitation.

How cold will it be in Kentucky this winter? Here's what NOAA says…

Kentucky is trending toward above-average temperatures during the first three months of 2025, according to a NOAA seasonal forecast map. The eastern half of Kentucky has a 50-60% chance of above normal temperatures.

The average daily high in Louisville is 36 at Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport in January, according to the NWS; 40 in February; and 48 in March. Lows during these three months average in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

According to the NWS, Kentucky is following a warming trend favored across the U.S., due in part to lower La Niña seawater temperatures. The card is valid from January to March 2025.

What do the Farmers' Almanacs predict for the Kentucky winter?

The Old Farmer's Almanac predicts a cold and snowy winter for Kentuckians – at least colder than much of the country.

“This winter, temperatures will rise and snowfall will fall across most of the United States,” Almanac Editor-in-Chief Carol Connare said online, predicting a “moderate, uneventful winter” overall. The almanac claims severe snowstorms will hit the central and southern Appalachians, the Rocky Mountains and parts of the western Ohio Valley.

Meanwhile, the Farmer's Almanac predicts that the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Midwest region (Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin) can expect a “big freeze” and “very, very cold conditions” in January.

Kentuckians should remember that almanacs' long-term predictions are sometimes little better than a coin toss. A study cited by Popular Mechanics found that the Farmer's Almanac was right about 52% of the time.

From the Archives: View photos of past fall leaves in Kentucky

John Tufts covers trending news for IndyStar and Midwest Connect. Send him a news tip at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter at JTuftsReports.

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