ABC News predicts Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. will retain control of New Jersey's 7th District. With 85% of the expected vote, he currently leads his Democratic opponent Sue Altman 52% to 46%.

The race has been closely watched by political forecasters as the results here could impact which party ultimately has control of the U.S. House of Representatives. The race was also worth watching for other reasons. While New Jersey itself is solidly blue, the 7th District is the state's only swing district, and Democrats had hoped to turn it blue again. (In 2022, after the district was redrawn to be more favorable to the GOP, Kean Jr. successfully unseated Tom Malinowski, a Democrat.) A win for Kean Jr. tonight does not mean the district will remain red forever. although. NJ-07 is the only one in the state that could theoretically be courted by either major political party in a closely contested election year. It has a partisan bias of R+3.

What's notable is that the polls before tonight were predicting a much closer race. A Monmouth University poll in October found that while Kean Jr. had an advantage among voters on issues such as the economy and immigration, Altman was more trusted on abortion policy. When it came to who to vote for, the poll found the two candidates were essentially deadlocked: 46% of registered voters said they “definitely” planned to support Kean Jr., compared to 44 % who were clearly in the Altman camp.

Kean Jr. is expected to be a stalwart voice for the House GOP caucus next year. During his re-election, he primarily stuck to his party's talking points and, among other things, fueled fear of migrants entering the USA. During a candidate debate, he briefly froze when asked whether he supported Trump's mass deportation plan. “We have to make sure we have the people who can be leaders to find common ground to secure our southern border, and that.” But he breaks with some members of his party on at least one point: He says he support “reasonable” restrictions on abortion, including banning the procedure after 20 weeks.