Two Conference USA teams in desperate need of a win meet tonight when the Kennesaw State Owls visit the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders.

The Blue Raiders only have one win, but our Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee predictions expect that to change. Read my college football picks to find out why the Owls will continue to struggle this level-up season.

Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee prediction and best bet

My best choice
Middle Tennessee -9.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
We give credit to the Kennesaw State Owls for making the jump to the FBS, but they seem overwhelmed through five games. In their last game, they lost to Jacksonville State 24-63, their first loss in Conference USA play, but the fifth consecutive time they lost by double digits.

This is the worst offense in the country, yielding just 3.7 yards per game, ranking 134th out of 134 teams. The Owls are also bottom of the conference at just 14.6 points per game. Their yards per rush (2.5) and passing yards per game (130.6) both rank in the bottom 5, resulting in a production of just 226.8 yards per contest, which ranks 133rd.

How grim is the outlook for Kennesaw State? They are 9.5 point underdogs to the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, a school that ranks last in the country in pass defense (320.7 yards) while ranking last in point defense at 40.5 points per game allowed.

The Blue Raiders opened the season with a 32-25 win over FCS Tennessee Tech, but since then they have lost five straight times to FBS opponents, losing by an average of 29.8 points, with their lowest loss coming by 17 points.

The difference here is Middle Tennessee's offense, which is by far the most prolific of any group these teams put on the field.

The passing attack is ranked second in Conference USA and top 40 in the country, averaging 267 yards per contest. While that hasn't translated into a ton of points – the average is just 16.8 points per game – Kennesaw State offers a soft landing on the schedule.

The Owls are giving up 36 points per game, which is third-worst in the conference and 121st in college football. Junior quarterback Nicholas Vattiato is easily the best pivot on the field, completing 64.9% of his passes for 1,561 yards and seven touchdowns with five interceptions.

It won't be pretty, but Middle Tennessee should roll.

Same parlay between Kennesaw State and Middle Tennessee (SGP)

Middle Tennessee -9.5

Over 50.5

Jaiden Credle any time during a touchdown

The Over has won four of six games at Middle Tennessee this year, and that trend should continue tonight. The opponent was the driving force in the contenders for that total, and Kennesaw State should also be able to find some success on offense against this poor MTU defense.

The Blue Raiders' offense hasn't scored more than 21 points in a game since Week 1, but the Owls have given up more than 30 points in three of their last four games. Putting it all together gives you enough points to cover the total.

Kennesaw State's run defense was overrun, allowing 186.2 yards per game. There have been 10 rushing touchdowns allowed in the last two games and 15 on the season.

That bodes well for Blue Raiders defenseman Jaiden Credle, who has played defense in two of the last three MTU games. The Owls have allowed at least one rushing score in all but one game this season.

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Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee odds

Kennesaw State vs Middle Tennessee live odds

Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee opening odds

• Kennesaw State vs MTSU spread: Middle Tennessee -10.5
• Kennesaw State vs. MTSU Moneyline: Kennesaw State +350, Middle Tennessee -450
• Kennesaw State vs. MTSU Over/Under: 50.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee spread and over/under analysis

• Kennesaw State is 1-4 against the slate this season. The Blue Raiders are 1-5 ATS.
• The overall score of 50.5 is the highest score awarded for an Owls game this season.
• Middle Tennessee is 4-2 O/U this season.

Things to know about the Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee betting trend

The Blue Raiders are the betting favorite at 1-0 ATS this season. Find more college football betting trends for Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee.

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