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Kamala Harris flips battleground state in Electoral College map model


Kamala Harris flips battleground state in Electoral College map model

Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to win Nevada after trailing former President Donald Trump in recent weeks, according to election analytics firm 338Canada's latest forecast model.

The day before the election, many will be turning to polls and predictive models to get an idea of ​​who will win what has been an extremely close presidential race.

In Sunday's update from 338Canada, Harris is leading Trump at 47 percent in the crucial swing state of Nevada with 53 percent.

Although the pair were tied last Wednesday, Trump led Harris in the state for most of October after closing her lead in September.

According to 338Canada, Harris winning Nevada would increase her chances of winning the Electoral College to 75 percent.

The model gives Harris 276 Electoral College votes in its latest forecast, up from 270 votes on Oct. 17. By comparison, the latest forecast gives Trump 262 Electoral College votes, up from 268 in the October 17 forecast.

Harris
Kamala Harris on Sunday, November 3, 2024, in East Lansing, Michigan. According to 338Canada's latest forecast model, Harris is ahead in Nevada.

AP

Meanwhile, poll provider FiveThirtyEight has Trump leading in Nevada with a razor-thin lead of 47.9 percent to Harris's 47.3 percent.

FiveThirtyEight has Trump by a razor-thin lead in the swing states of Arizona (49.1 percent to Harris' 46.5 percent), North Carolina (48.4 percent to Harris' 47.2 percent) and Pennsylvania (47.9 percent to Harris's). ' 47.7 percent) in front.

The aggregator has Harris leading in the swing states of Michigan (47.9 percent to Trump's 47.1 percent) and Wisconsin (48.2 percent to Trump's 47.4 percent).

Meanwhile, the vice president enjoyed multiple poll numbers over the weekend after coming out ahead in a British “mega-poll” with a sample size of more than 31,000 people, a new poll in Iowa and in the finals in several battleground states New York Times/Sienna College Survey.

The shocking Iowa poll conducted by pollster Ann Selzer for The Des Moines Registergave Harris a three-point lead in the deep red state, although that is within the poll's margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

In response to those polls, Trump's campaign released a memo on Sunday criticizing the polls and saying the data was being used to “dim voters' enthusiasm.”

Pollster Nate Silver also warned that Trump is often underestimated in surveys. “Trump supporters often have lower civic engagement and social trust, so they may be less inclined to respond to a news organization poll,” he wrote in one NYT column this week.

According to FiveThirtyEight's latest national polling aggregate, Harris has a razor-thin lead – 47.9 percent to Trump's 47 percent.

Newsweek emailed the Trump and Harris teams outside of normal working hours for comment.

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