Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista

UFC 307

Delta Center in Salt Lake City

Saturday, October 5, 2024

Jose Aldo will face Mario Bautista at UFC 307 on Saturday, October 5, 2024. The money line shows Aldo at +120 while Bautista comes in at -142.

Jose Aldo will look to add a win to his career record of 32-8-0. The 38-year-old weighs 135 pounds. and stands at 5' 7″. The Orthodox Fighter is 70″ long. Mario Bautista measures 1.70 meters and weighs 65 kilograms. The switch fighter enters the cage with a score of 14-2-0. The 31-year-old extends his reach to 69 inches. When it comes to significant hits, Jose Aldo lands 3.63 significant hits per minute while Mario Bautista lands 5.69 significant hits per minute. Aldo scores on 46% of his significant shots while Bautista scores on 48%. As for their defense in the cage, Aldo absorbs 3.73 significant strikes per minute while Bautista allows 3.99. Aldo also blocks 60% of the heavy punches his opponents throw at him, and Bautista can stop 53% of the shots thrown.

In the takedown category, Jose Aldo is not as effective a wrestler as he gets a takedown 0.51 times every three rounds. Aldo completes his takedown attempts on 53% of his attempts and defends 91% of all takedown attempts. Bautista brings his opponent to the mat on 44% of his takedown attempts and defends 66% of the attempts against him. When it comes to submissions, Aldo is the less skilled fighter as he attempts 0.1 submissions per 3 rounds while Bautista attempts 1.0 submissions per 3 rounds.

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In his last fight, Jose Aldo fought against Jonathan Martinez and won by unanimous decision in the third round. In the end, Martinez landed 80 of the 151 punches he threw in total in the fight. Aldo finished the night with 101 of 174 total hits. In the “significant hits” category, Martinez ended up with 52 of 118, giving him a rate of 44%. He ended up landing 36 of 96 significant blows to the head. Regarding the opponent's stats, Aldo ended up landing 55% of his significant punches by landing 77 of 139. Looking at the significant hitting accuracy, he hit 41 out of 96 with his head. 96% of Martinez's significant hits and 90% of Aldo's significant hits came from distance.

In Mario Bautista's last fight, he faced Ricky Simon and won via unanimous decision in round 3. Simon landed 97% of his significant hits from distance, while Bautista landed 98% of his significant hits from distance. Bautista scored on 41% of his significant scoring attempts, scoring 112 of 270 goals. He ended up landing 76 of 219 significant hits aimed at the head. Simon scored 45 of 108 significant hits in this fight. He managed to connect to the head on 33 of 95 of these significant hits. In terms of the total number of shots attempted in this competition, Simon scored 52 of 115 shots and Bautista scored 118 of 276 of all the shots he attempted.

Other fights on the card to watch out for

Another fight that shouldn't be missed is Roman Dolidze's fight in the Octagon against Kevin Holland. Dolidze enters the octagon with a record of 13-3-0. The 36-year-old will fight at 185 pounds. and is 6 feet 2 inches tall. The orthodox fighter reaches 76 inches. Holland is 6 feet tall and weighs 185 pounds. The orthodox fighter enters the cage with a mark of 26-11-0 (1 NC). The 31-year-old stretches 81 inches. In terms of takedowns, Roman Dolidze knocks down his opponents 1.26 times per 15 minutes, while Kevin Holland scores a takedown 0.84 times per 15 minutes. When it comes to hitting, Dolidze averages 3.13 punches per minute and lands 42% of his punch attempts. On the other side of the cage we have Kevin Holland, who is landing 49% of his attempted punches and landing 4.25 per minute.

Another fight to watch is Joaquin Buckley's clash with Stephen Thompson. Thompson enters the Octagon with a mark of 17-7-1. The 41-year-old fights at 170 pounds. and measures 6 feet 0 inches. The Orthodox Fighter is 75 inches long. Buckley stands 5' 10″ and weighs 170 pounds. The southpaw enters the Octagon with a mark of 19-6-0. The 30-year-old measures 76″. In the takedown category, Stephen Thompson is able to contain 65% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and completes his takedown attempts on 41% of his attempts. Buckley brings his opponents to the mat on 44% of his attempts and is able to save 69% of all takedown attempts against him. In the punch category, Thompson absorbs 3.03 punches per minute and distributes 4.11 per minute. Buckley, on the other hand, absorbs 3.12 punches per minute and lands 4.25 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's pick: Take Mario Bautista (-142)

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