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Is Dixville's notch result bad news for Kamala Harris?


Is Dixville's notch result bad news for Kamala Harris?

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have tied in the remote Dixville Notch district, which could be bad news for the Democratic presidential candidate given previous results.

But it wasn't all good news for Trump, as one of the six voters spoke out against the Republican candidate.

The community on the U.S.-Canada border in New Hampshire opened and closed its polls after midnight, a tradition that dates back to the 1960s. In the final result, Harris and Trump each had three votes.

The city is not historically representative of how New Hampshire will vote or who will ultimately take the White House. But in the last two elections, Democrats have won Dixville Notch by significant margins – meaning Harris' tie represents a significant break from recent results.

The sample size was six people – four Republicans and two independents. But one of the Republicans broke for Harris. Before the vote, registered Republican Les explained why he broke with Trump.

“Nowhere in the Pledge of Allegiance does it say anything about swearing allegiance to one person. And I think at the end of the day, Trump has made it clear that you have to pledge allegiance to him and he alone can fix this and that is as anti-democratic as I can understand,” Otten told CNN. He added that he has been a Republican since he was seven years old.

Dixville Notch 24
City officials count ballots after midnight voting on Election Day, Tuesday, November 5, 2024, in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire. Harris and Trump each have three votes, which is bad news for the vice president…


Charles Krupa/AP Photo

Newsweek emailed the Harris and Trump campaigns seeking comment.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Trump 4-2 in the city's election. She then defended the state of New Hampshire with 47.6 percent to Trump's 47.2 percent. However, Clinton did not win the White House.

Four years later, Democrats also wore Dixville Notch when Biden decisively defeated Trump 5-0.

In the January GOP primary, Dixville Notch voted decisively for South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who ultimately dropped out of the race after losing every state except Vermont on Super Tuesday.

Dixville Notch residents also cast their vote for New Hampshire governor, with five votes going to Republican candidate Kelly Ayotte and one vote to Democrat Joyce Craig.

Traditionally, Dixville Notch is the first place to announce its election results and has received that honor since 1960. According to the Associated Press, the early voting tradition was introduced to the city to accommodate railroad workers who did not have time to vote in the city more normally working day.

The community is subject to a state law that allows it to declare the election over when all registered voters have cast their ballots. The polling stations open shortly after midnight on election day, and the results are counted and announced publicly shortly afterwards.

Elsewhere in the state, polls appear to agree that Harris will win New Hampshire, which has four votes in the Electoral College.

Using polling, economic and demographic data, FiveThirtyEight says Harris wins New Hampshire 88 times out of 100 in election simulations.

However, the gap between Harris and Trump in New Hampshire has narrowed in recent days. RealClearPolling, which previously said it was a “leans Democrat,” now thinks it's a “mistake.”

The last Republican to win New Hampshire was George W. Bush in 2000, defeating Al Gore 48.1 percent to 46.8 percent.

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