Is Bexar County breaking voting records? It depends.

Despite long lines to cast ballots and a higher than normal number of in-person early voting in the first few days after polls opened, local political analysts on both sides of the aisle say turnout in Bexar County is actually below expectations for a high-profile presidential election.

Rapid population growth has led to an increase in registered voters in Bexar County, and the first day of in-person early voting was 40% higher than the first day of early voting in 2020.

“It's exciting because we're breaking records in terms of numbers,” said Laura Barberena, a San Antonio political consultant who owns the firm Viva Politics. “But normally in politics we don’t pay attention to mere numbers, but rather to percentages.”

In terms of percentages, Barberena said voter turnout in Bexar County this year isn't particularly different from other elections.

“I think we'll end up at (around) 57% (total voter turnout in Bexar County), which is realistically a subpar performance in elections of this type,” she said.

Early voting ends Friday at 8 p.m.

Voters will then have another opportunity to cast their vote on Election Day, Tuesday, November 5th, from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.

Returning officer Jacquelyn Callanen told reporters Friday morning that voter enthusiasm in the first few days had “waned” in the final stretch.

“We were surprised, yesterday it was down a bit,” Callanen said. “Usually these last two days (of early voting) have kind of thrown us off balance.”

Voter registration numbers in Bexar County are up 9.7% compared to 2020, leading Callanen to predict earlier this election that about 900,000 total votes would be cast.

While early voting numbers are lower than she expected based on registration numbers, Callanen said she did not adjust her overall turnout forecast because media reports suggested many voters are waiting until Election Day this year.

“That's kind of our big question: Will early voting go down a little bit because it's supposed to happen on Election Day?” Callanen said. “They didn’t appear in the numbers we calculated.”

At a primary election panel on Thursday, political activists on the left and right had different ideas about what these final days might look like.

Among the factors to consider when comparing 2024 to 2020 is that early voting was extended an additional week in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, said Ana Ramón, executive director of the progressive group Annie's List.

Credit: Texas Secretary of State

Postal voting has also been given higher priority during the pandemic.

“What we’re seeing across the state is — I would say more from the Democratic political side — that our people are kind of waiting,” Ramón said.

“That could change, especially if a lot of what we think is happening nationally is happening in Texas, which is that we see a steady increase through the weekend and then on Election Day,” she said.

Republican strategist Kelton Morgan, whose political firm CSG Inc. does direct voter outreach in San Antonio, said early voting data in Bexar County is currently hardly “indicative of a blue wave.”

“The most interesting thing I see is that the people who vote are people who always vote,” he said. “There is not a major surge in people emerging from the crisis for the first time that would change the dynamics of a typical election.”

Bexar County in the spotlight

Back to the raw numbers: Morgan said that after nine days of early voting, the total number of votes cast across the state of Texas fell by about 1.5 million compared to 2020.

That's probably not the case in Bexar County.

“Overall, this (metrostatistical area) is the fastest-growing region in the country, so we will have higher raw numbers than we have,” Morgan said of Bexar County.

From the Democrats' perspective, Ramón said a statewide victory would require 42% of the total electorate to come from bluer areas in Texas' four largest counties – Dallas County, Travis County (home to Austin), Harris County (home to Houston ). and Bexar County.

“Right now I think we’re at 38% or 39%,” she said. While that may sound close, she added, Texas is “a few points away” between 500,000 and 600,000 votes.

But in the long term, Ramón said, the state's population shifts mean that Texas — and particularly its large urban counties — will likely remain a top priority for national Democrats, even if their unprecedented spending falls short in this year's U.S. Senate race .

“We have 40% of the state that is Latino. We have the largest African American population in the country. “We have the fastest Southeast Asian population growth in the country,” Ramón said. “That’s why I think there are national organizations that look at Texas from a real perspective.”

Making Texas a more reliable swing state or a place where a Democratic U.S. presidential candidate could win is critical to the party's future, she added.

“Regardless of what happens in this election cycle, we must either change the map and path to the Electoral College or expand it,” she said.

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