SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) – It's 1,000 miles south of Central Florida on Sunday morning. It's Invest AL97, the disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwest. Hurricane hunter aircraft are scheduled to survey the storm on Sunday and collect more data for computer models as we track the storm. The spaghetti model plots shift the system northwestward over Cuba early in the week. By Wednesday it will continue north of Florida's west coast and parallel to the coast. This is close enough to bring thunderstorms to Florida on Wednesday and Thursday. Most models keep the storm at tropical storm strength (winds of 39 to 73 mph). Some of the models achieve Category 1 strength.

Late Wednesday, models project the storm to extend as far north as Tampa Bay, still offshore. Afterwards there is chaos among the models. Some will bring it as far as the Big Bend area, others will push it further west toward the Louisiana coast by next weekend. As this storm continues to develop, we should reach more consensus on models regarding the track and intensity of what is expected to become Rafael. The course and intensity of the story can still change significantly for the time being.

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