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Independent voter turnout exceeds Democrats and is on par with Republicans: Edison research report


Independent voter turnout exceeds Democrats and is on par with Republicans: Edison research report

In Tuesday's U.S. presidential election, self-described independents made up a larger share of voters than Democrats, joining Republicans as the largest voting bloc, according to polling data from Edison Research.

This is the first time since Edison began exit polling in 2004 that independents have outperformed either major political party in voter turnout.

The latest data shows 34% of voters identified as independents, compared to 34% of Republicans and 32% of Democrats.

This represents an increase of 8 percentage points compared to the 2020 election, when independents made up 26% of the electorate.

The rise in independent turnout reflects a growing trend among voters to distance themselves from the two-party system and signals a shift in how critical swing states could be decided in 2024.

Independents, often seen as a deciding factor in closely contested elections, are expected to play a major role in determining the outcome of this year's race.

According to the latest results, Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris are tied among independent voters, with Trump gaining ground compared to the last election.

Currently, Trump has won important victories in key states including Florida, Georgia and North Carolina.

His swing state victories, including Fox News predictions of a projected win in Pennsylvania, boosted his chances of getting the 270 electoral votes he needed.

While independents have favored Democratic candidates in the past, the 2024 election saw a significant shift in favor of Trump among this key voting bloc.

In recent exit polls, 45% of independents said they voted for Trump, compared to 50% for Harris. This represents a 4 percentage point improvement for Trump over 2020, when he received 41% of the independent vote while Harris received 55%.

Although Democrats maintain a slight lead among independents overall, Trump's gains reflect his growing appeal to voters disillusioned with the current political establishment.

This shift is particularly important in key swing states where independents can decide the outcome of the election.

The increasing influence of independent voters in the 2024 election highlights the challenges facing both parties, as neither party commands a clear majority of the electorate.

For Democrats, the rise of independent voters poses a significant hurdle, particularly in swing states where Trump has made gains.

To secure a victory, Harris must work to solidify support among independents while strengthening Democrats' core constituency in urban areas and marginalized communities.

Meanwhile, Trump's campaign will likely continue to focus on economic issues and national security, while appealing to independent voters' growing dissatisfaction with the current administration.

The increase in turnout among independent voters will play a critical role in the outcome of several key battleground states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada, where the race is expected to remain tight.

In these states, independent voters could ultimately decide the direction of the election, particularly in districts where the Republican and Democratic bases are close.

As the 2024 election evolves, both parties will need to adapt their strategies to address the concerns of independent voters.

The shift in voter behavior suggests that the traditional two-party system is coming under increasing strain and candidates will need to engage with a broader, more diverse electorate to achieve victory.

The continued rise of independent voters is likely to shape the future of US elections, and 2024 could prove to be a pivotal moment in the evolving American political landscape.

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