Hurricane warning issued for Florida's Gulf Coast as Helene brews

(This story has been updated to add new information.)

Hurricane and storm surge warnings were in effect for much of Florida's Gulf Coast on Tuesday morning as a system brewing in the Caribbean Sea was expected to quickly develop into a powerful hurricane.

The National Hurricane Center predicted the storm — soon to be named Helene — will reach winds of 115 mph (185 kph) before making landfall, making it a Category 3 storm, experts say. Meteorologists warned the storm could bring life-threatening storm surges, damaging winds and heavy rains.

According to the Hurricane Center, the system is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday and make landfall on Thursday.

“Everyone along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region needs to be prepared for the impacts of a hurricane,” said Alex DaSilva, senior hurricane expert at AccuWeather, adding that the constellation has the potential to be the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. this season.

Developments:

∎ Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 41 counties along and near Florida's Gulf Coast on Monday because of the threat from the storm. The declaration said there was a significant risk of storm surge and flooding, especially in areas still recovering from the elevated water levels left by Hurricane Debby.

∎ If the storm makes landfall on the U.S. mainland as a hurricane, it would be the fourth hurricane to make landfall on the U.S. mainland this year, along with Beryl, Debby and Francine.

The storm, whose name will be announced soon, was in the Caribbean Sea early Tuesday, where it is forecast to bring dangerous conditions, including flooding and storm surges, to the Cayman Islands, Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba through midweek.

The storm was located 150 miles west of Grand Cayman and 205 miles south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba, the National Hurricane Center said at 8 a.m. With maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, the system was moving northwest at 9 mph.

On its current track, the center of the system is expected to move across the northwestern Caribbean on Tuesday evening before emerging over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and moving toward the southeastern United States.

The system could dump 10 to 20 centimeters of rain over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands, and even 30 centimeters in isolated areas, the hurricane center said, warning of “significant flooding.” 5 to 10 centimeters of rain are expected over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, and even more than 15 centimeters in isolated areas. Other dangers include storm surges and strong gusts of wind.

“Hurricane-force winds are possible in warning areas in Cuba and Mexico until early Wednesday morning,” the weather service said. “Hurricane-force winds are possible in warning areas in the United States late Wednesday and early Thursday.”

In a morning update from the National Hurricane Center, forecasters issued a hurricane warning for most of Florida's Gulf Coast, stretching from Englewood, south of Sarasota, to Indian Pass in the Big Bend region. Cities including St. Petersburg and Tampa Bay are under hurricane warnings.

“A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are possible within the observation area,” the hurricane center said. “A warning is usually issued 48 hours before the first tropical storm force winds are expected, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.”

A tropical storm warning is in effect for some areas of the state, and a storm surge warning has been issued for most of the Gulf Coast. According to the weather service, there is a “potential for life-threatening flooding from rising waters moving inland from the coast” during the next 48 hours.

The tropical system in the western Caribbean may not look like much yet, but don't be fooled. History has shown that the Gulf of Mexico can be a pressure cooker, transforming systems like this from weak storms into devastating monster storms almost overnight under the right conditions.

The storm is expected to strengthen in the Gulf and reach potentially explosive power. It's called rapid intensification, and it's happened before. In fact, most of the worst hurricanes in history have experienced rapid intensification, Ken Graham, the director of the National Weather Service, said in interviews with USA TODAY.

Read more: Will Hurricane Helene emerge like a monster from the Gulf?

According to the Weather Prediction Center, Florida's Big Bend and parts of southwestern Georgia are at least at a moderate risk of excessive rainfall over the next five days. Elevated river levels, which still linger after Hurricane Debby in August, are expected to contribute to the flooding risk.

The official weather forecast predicts rainfall of 10 to 15 centimeters for the west coast of Florida and the Panhandle, with amounts of up to 25 centimeters possible in some areas.

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