Hurricane Oscar emerges, the 10th hurricane of the season

A storm system in the Caribbean quickly escalated from a tropical storm Saturday into Hurricane Oscar, the 10th hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

Meteorologists said Oscar's winds were much stronger than previously thought and declared the system a hurricane at 2 p.m. ET. Oscar's maximum sustained winds were about 80 mph with stronger gusts, which was “unexpected,” forecasters said. It could become even stronger on Saturday before a gradual weakening begins next week.

According to the National Weather Service in Melbourne, Florida, Oscar could have an indirect impact on beaches on the East Coast of the U.S. through prolonged swell in the coming days.

Oscar was also the eighth named storm to form since September 24, breaking a record for most named storm formations between September 24 and October 19 set in 1950, Phil Klotzbach wrote, a senior scientist at Colorado State University, on X.

Hurricane warnings have been issued for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, while Cuba has issued hurricane warnings for the provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin and Las Tunas.

Tropical Storm Nadine makes landfall

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Nadine made landfall in Belize around noon ET on Saturday. According to the National Hurricane Center, maximum sustained winds Saturday afternoon were 50 miles per hour.

Tropical storm warnings have been issued for Belize City and areas from Belize to Cancun, Mexico, including Cozumel. With widespread rainfall of 4 to 8 inches expected, Nadine will trigger localized flash flooding across southern Mexico, northern Guatemala and northern Belize.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along parts of the coasts of Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula through Saturday afternoon, the hurricane center said. Isolated rainfall amounts of more than 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday.

Nadine poses no threat to the U.S. As the storm moves inland, it is expected to weaken by early Sunday and likely dissipate over southeastern Mexico, the center said.

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Tropical Storm Nadine tracker

This forecast track shows the most likely path of the storm center. It does not show the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is expected to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

Tropical Storm Nadine Spaghetti Models

The figures cover a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center only uses the four or five best-performing models in its forecasts.

Hurricane Oscar is expected to strengthen and then slow

Hurricane Oscar was located about 165 miles east-southeast of the southeastern Bahamas and was moving west at 12 miles per hour Saturday afternoon. Oscar is expected to experience some intensification as it gradually slows and turns toward the west-southwest over the next few days.

Oscar could come to a stop near the northeast coast of Cuba within 36 to 48 hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected over parts of the southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands and eastern Cuba the next day, with heavy rains beginning Saturday and continuing overnight.

“The hurricane center said a dangerous storm surge would also cause coastal flooding in the Turks and Caicos Islands, with water levels of 2 to 4 feet.

How Oscar went from a tiny storm to a Category 1 hurricane in just a few hours

For a week, the National Hurricane Center had been watching a disorganized area of showers moving across the Atlantic, waiting to see if it would develop, with the likelihood of it becoming more than that first increasing and then decreasing. On Saturday morning, various images showed that the small storm suddenly came to life and developed a closed, dense circulation. The hurricane center warned just before 8 a.m. that it was organizing and that there was a 60% chance of it becoming a named storm later Saturday.

A little more than two hours later, the center announced it would begin issuing warnings for Tropical Storm Oscar at 11 a.m. with hurricane-force winds.

Based on advisories from the hurricane center, Oscar's winds increased by 40 miles per hour in just three hours, although the winds may have been stronger than initially estimated. It's still a small storm: hurricane-force winds only extend up to 5 miles from the center, and its mean diameter is only about 80 miles.

Oscar is at least the fifth hurricane this year to experience a phenomenon called rapid intensification, in which winds increase by at least 35 miles per hour in 24 hours.

Hurricanes can take advantage of conditions such as warm seawater and low wind shear to gain strength quickly, and waters in the Caribbean and this area of the Atlantic are warmer than normal. This warm water has caused storms throughout the summer. Hurricane Beryl reached 95 mph winds in just 42.5 hours. Then winds in Milton increased by 95 miles per hour in just 24 hours. Helene and Francine also quickly intensified.

Hurricane Oscar Tracker

Hurricane Oscar Spaghetti Models

The figures cover a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center only uses the four or five best-performing models in its forecasts.

When does the 2024 hurricane season end?

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which typically runs from June 1 to November 30, has about six weeks left. There have been 15 named storms so far this season. The next storm to form will be called Patty.

After about five relatively quiet weeks, the 2024 season – especially with the arrival of Helene and Milton – has become an above-average hurricane season, it is said Klotzbach. In a post on X, he noted that the 14th storm in the Atlantic typically forms on November 19th.

There is a 50 percent chance of tropical development by Oct. 28, Colorado State University meteorologists said in a recent two-week forecast. “There are indications of possible further development in the western Caribbean towards the end of the forecast period, but these signals are quite weak,” CSU forecasters said.

Atlantic Storm Tracker

Contributors: John Gallas, Cheryl McCloud and Doyle Rice from the USA TODAY Network.

Follow Mike Snider on X and Threads: @mikesnider & Mikegsnider.

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(This story has been updated to add new information.)